These states backed both Trump and abortion rights
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Voters in seven states approved ballot measures to expand abortion access, while some of them simultaneously backed President-elect Trump and Republicans who could help instate a federal ban come next year.
The big picture: The president-elect, who has repeatedly taken credit for overturning federal abortion protections, has flip-flopped on the issue but insisted he would not sign a national ban into law.
- But with a likely trifecta at the federal level, Congress could have the means to curb access — whether it be by passing a total national ban, pushing through a ban at various weeks of pregnancy or instating legislation to limit access to medication abortion.
- Voters, showing they recognize abortion as a top priority, approved measures to expand or enshrine abortion access in Arizona, Colorado, Maryland, Missouri, Montana, Nevada and New York.
Trump also won in deep-red Missouri and Montana and the swing states of Arizona and Nevada.
- "Clearly, voters continue to be comfortable splitting tickets, both in terms of candidates but also when it comes to abortion rights ballot measures," Kelly Baden, vice president of public policy at the Guttmacher Institute, said.
What she's saying: This seeming contradiction between supporting abortion expansions and pro-life Republicans is not a new phenomenon.
- Baden pointed to Mississippi's 2011 "personhood" initiative, which was soundly defeated at the same time Republicans against abortion rights won in nearly all statewide races.
State of play: Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, voters in 16 states have weighed in on abortion-related constitutional amendments.
- Prior to this week's elections, in every state with ballot measures to expand abortion access, voters passed that expansion and it was a winning issue for Democrats in the midterms.
- "One lesson is that we must better connect the dots for people that abortion is an economic issue," Baden said.
Zoom in: Only three states with measures to expand abortion access on the ballot this election saw them fail.
- Florida's measure to enshrine abortion access until fetal viability received more than 57% of votes in favor, but was just shy of the state's required 60% threshold to pass.
- Nebraska also had a close call, but voters ultimately rejected abortion rights protections.
- South Dakotans too rejected a measure that would have radically expanded reproductive rights in a state where the procedure is currently banned except to save the life of a pregnant person.
Zoom out: There are a number of ways the federal government can limit abortion access, including in states with protections.
- One way is by seizing on the 19th-century Comstock Act, targeting a ban on medication abortion and on equipment used for procedures.
- This could effectively ban all abortions nationwide, said Laurie Sobel, who leads analysis of abortion laws and litigation at the KFF health policy nonprofit.
- "If you're not allowed to distribute the drug, then that affects states that have protected abortion, even those with constitutional amendments protecting it," Sobel said.
Baden explained the Trump-Vance administration "could immediately signal" through Justice Department guidance "a radical and legally unsound interpretation of the Comstock Act."
- "This would likely target medication abortion but could go so far as to effectively ban all abortion nationwide," Baden said.
- "Even the threat of enforcement would create a chilling effect for providers."
- They simply might stop providing abortions if "faced with potential criminalization," she added.
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