Trump's recipe: Limit his losses among key groups
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Former President Trump and Melania Trump celebrate early Wednesday in Palm Beach, Fla. Photo: Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Former President Trump is on the verge of returning to the White House with help from groups that soundly rejected him when he was president: suburban women, independents and young people.
Driving the news: Trump didn't defeat Harris with any of those groups, exit polls suggested Tuesday. But by focusing on the economy, illegal immigration and crime, he managed to deny Harris the margins she needed to reassemble the coalition that led President Biden to victory four years ago.
- Trump overcame a Democratic base that Harris had energized by the prospect of protecting abortion rights and electing the nation's first Black and Asian woman to be president.
- Trump also was able to juice his Republican base, particularly among rural and working-class voters, and those who didn't go to college.
Zoom in: The shifts among core demographic groups were subtle, but significant.
Women
- Women voters still largely preferred Harris over Trump — but not with the margins or the level of turnout her campaign needed to win.
- Harris won roughly 54% of women, according to NBC News and CNN exit polls. Biden took 57% in the same polls four years ago.
- Harris even underperformed Biden among suburban women by 2 points with 57%, according to AP VoteCast.
- For a party that had exceeded expectations among women voters since the Supreme Court struck down abortion rights under Roe v. Wade in 2022, it was a bitter blow.
Young voters
- Harris won 52% of 18- to 29-year-olds — but that was down from the 61% who voted for Biden in 2020, according to the AP's VoteCast.
- Trump won a greater share of the under-30 vote than any Republican presidential candidate since 2008, according to NBC's exit polls.
- That could be driven in part by young adults' disenchantment with President Biden and Democrats over their handling of the war in Gaza. Trump won a majority of those ages 19-29 in Michigan, where Arab American communities were particularly vocal about the administration's policy.
- There were far fewer first-time voters compared to 2020, but Trump won a majority of them (54%), compared to the 1-in-3 first-timers who voted for him four years ago, according to NBC's exit polls.
The suburbs
- In all-important Pennsylvania, Harris needed to run up the score in suburbs like Montgomery County, outside of Philadelphia. She led by 22 points with 92% of precincts reporting — off the 26-point margin Biden had in winning Pennsylvania in 2020.
- Alarm bells about Harris' suburban performance were going off early during Pennsylvania's count: When the Virginia suburbs of Washington, D.C., started to report at 7pm ET Tuesday, it quickly became clear that Harris wasn't matching Biden's 2020 numbers.
- In 2020, Biden whipped Trump by 41 points in Fairfax County — Virginia's most populous county, with more than 1.1 million people. Harris topped Trump this year — but only by 35 points.
Independents
- Harris won 50% of independents — down from Biden's 54% in 2020, according to NBC's exit poll.
- She also lost ground with voters who described themselves as moderate — 58% compared to the 64% won by Biden.
Flashback: In the 2018 midterm elections, women, suburbanites and young voters all revolted against Trump.
- Women broke for Democrats 59-40 in 2018, according to Pew Research. Trump won men 51-47.
- Of the 41 congressional districts that Democrats flipped, 38 were in suburbs, according to The New York Times.
- Now — amid concerns about inflation, the economy and immigration — Republicans are making a comeback.
Editor's note: This article has been corrected to reflect the AP VoteCast age group for young voters as 18-29 year olds. An earlier version mistakenly had 18-20 year olds.
