What to watch: Latino voters in the 2024 election
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The 36.2 million Latinos who are eligible to vote in this year's presidential election are critical to its outcome.
The big picture: As the Latino population has grown and dispersed around all pockets of the country, it's become less reliably Democratic and less easy to predict. Here's some of what we've learned about Latino voters in this election season.
Latinos are increasingly independent
Latinos in the 18- to 29-year-old age bracket tend to lean left but register as independent and are less likely to commit to a political party than some of their elders.
- Research shows about 29% of Latino registered voters in that younger age range consider themselves politically independent — the highest share of every age bracket. Roughly 21% of all Latino voters aren't party-affiliated.
- Central California — which is majority Latino and where Russell spent a few days this year talking with voters — is also increasingly independent. Read one of his dispatches here.
Vice President Harris' long history of appealing to Latino voters
Harris has a track record of turning out Latino voters in 2010, 2014, and 2016 in California, which has the country's largest Hispanic population.
- A majority of Latinos supported her in the 2010 and 2014 elections for California's Attorney General.
- In 2016, as she ran to represent California in the U.S. Senate, polls showed Harris breaking even or surpassing popular Democratic candidate Loretta Sanchez, per the polling firm Latino Decisions.
- Latinos pushed Harris over the finish line after labor icon Dolores Huerta supported her. Huerta also backed Harris during her failed 2020 Democratic presidential run and endorsed her again this cycle.
This year, Harris has aggressively courted Latino voters through ads, in-person events, and dispatching surrogates. Polls show her well ahead of Trump among Latino voters, but it's unclear if she has the level of support President Biden did when he won in 2020.
Trump and the GOP are making inroads with Latinos
Trump has more trust among Latinos when it comes to handling of immigration issues, according to polling conducted earlier this year.
- Once reliably Democratic voters, many working-class Latino voters are leaning more toward the GOP.
- Prior to Biden dropping out of the race, enthusiasm for this election was higher among Latino Republicans than Democrats, although Harris has largely closed that enthusiasm gap.
Swing state Latinos' power
Latinos who live in swing states have a massive amount of political clout — if they vote.
- Arizona has the highest share of Latino voters of the swing states: nearly a quarter of the electorate there is Latino.
- In 2020, Latinos in the state chose Biden over Trump by a 3 to 1 ratio, and the Harris campaign has been trying to match that level of support.
In Pennsylvania, Puerto Ricans make up a small but important share of the electorate.
- Historically, Puerto Rican voters in the mainland have voted for the Democratic Party — about 68% of those living in Florida supported Biden in 2020, per exit polls.
- Now, the racist joke at the Madison Square Garden rally — what many Puerto Ricans say is emblematic of poor treatment from the Trump administration when he was in office — may have galvanized more Puerto Ricans to vote.
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