Senate Democrats' sneaky advantage in 2024
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Senate Democratic campaigns have outspent Republicans with the one currency that both parties value the most: hard dollars.
Why it matters: The Senate map favors Republicans. But the Senate money favors Democrats.
- Those competing dynamics will collide on Election Day, with no obvious winner in sight in most races— other than local TV stations.
Zoom out: The Democrats' advantage with hard dollars — raised in smaller increments and controlled by campaigns — has forced Republicans to rely on their leader's outside super PACs to level the playing field.
- It's a dynamic that's also in play in the House, where Democrats trounced their opponents in hoovering up hard dollars in the third quarter, and the DCCC has consistently outraised the NRCC.
- Republicans say they face a structural disadvantage on the fundraising front. Democrats are simply better, the GOP says, at convincing grassroots donors to part with small dollar amounts.
- That's also true at the presidential level, where Vice President Harris's campaign has embarrassed former President Trump on the fundraising front since she became the nominee.
Zoom in: Democratic campaigns have spent more hard dollars on TV and digital ads this year than Republicans in every one of the most competitive Senate races.
- That's true for campaign spending alone and also when counting coordination with each party's Senate campaign arm and joint fundraising committees, according to AdImpact.
- Groups linked to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) have still spent heavily in key races — with their top ad investments in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Nevada.
- But Democratic super PACs trail Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell's (R-Ky.) affiliated groups in key states like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Montana.
The intrigue: Sen. Jon Tester (D-Mont.) is by far the most vulnerable Senate Democrat.
- Schumer's affiliated groups have spent $30 million on his behalf, roughly half the $56 million in hard dollars from Tester's own account.
- That hard-dollar advantage helped Schumer-aligned money flow to Wisconsin and Nevada.
- Democrats spent cash more efficiently by placing ad reservations early in the cycle, capitalizing on lower rates further out from the election, sources tell us.
The bottom line: Incumbents usually have an advantage in fundraising because they have established donor relationships, giving Democrats another leg up in the spending war.
- But this year, even Democrats running for open seats, like Rep. Elisa Slotkin in Michigan, have outspent their opponents.
