Behind the Curtain — Election scenario 1: War-gaming a Trump sweep

This period, lasting at least two years, until the next congressional races, would allow Republicans to move ambitiously — with few brakes beyond the Senate filibuster.

• The vast majority of congressional leaders are now Trump loyalists. The days of empowered never-Trumpers are basically over, at least in Congress.
• Trump would pursue a dramatic expansion of presidential power — gutting the federal bureaucracy and installing thousands of executive branch loyalists to rip off the guardrails that restrained his first term.

The big picture: We got our hands on a fascinating private presentation by FGS Global, a worldwide communications and public affairs consultancy advising huge clients on how to prep for various election outcomes. The presentation is based on a CIA method of anticipating, understanding and navigating geopolitical outcomes.

• FGS uses it to help corporations brace for big, potentially sweeping, changes to policies or regulations in the new government. We realized it would also help Axios readers brace for what's next.
• This is the first of four columns exploring the most likely outcomes — and consequences — of the election. It combines our reporting with the FGS "Alternative Futures" analysis.

What to watch in FGS' "MAGA momentum" scenario, with Republicans controlling both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue:

1. Immigration, border control

Trump's immigration policies would echo nationally — and quickly. The wall along the Southwest border would likely be expanded. Efforts to curb both legal and illegal immigration would accelerate.

• New barriers would be placed on asylum-seekers. Deportation would intensify. And there could be pushes to cut refugee admissions significantly.
• Trump has promised to round up and expel millions of people here illegally, possibly using the U.S. military. His advisers privately predict a more tempered version of this draconian threat. Running mate JD Vance said in a New York Times interview: "I think it's certainly reasonable to deport around a million people per year."
• Expect legislation that codifies restrictive immigration measures, possibly including mandatory E-Verify for businesses and stronger penalties for sanctuary cities.
• This aggressive approach could drastically reduce the flow of immigrants into the U.S. — altering labor markets, especially in industries reliant on immigrant workers.
• It could also exacerbate tensions with Mexico and Central American countries.
• A Trump source told us: "90% of what Trump will do on the border will happen under executive action, so it won't matter who wins Congress."

2. Health care, social spending

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) would likely be weakened through legislative and administrative actions. Republicans might focus on restructuring key elements of the ACA: Medicaid could see new work requirements and eligibility restrictions, particularly in GOP-controlled states.

• Reproductive rights would come under further attack at the state level, though Trump says he'd veto a national ban.
• Vulnerable populations — low-income families, women, the elderly and LGBTQ+ people — would face increasing barriers to access.

3. Trade, economic policy

Trump's return would likely see the resurrection of his combative trade policies, with an even more aggressive approach to tariffs as a blunt instrument to reshape the global economy.

• Publicly, he's calling for 10% to 20% blanket tariffs on all U.S. imports and 60% tariffs on China — a historic pivot toward protectionism that would test free-market Republicans in Congress and on Wall Street.
• Imposing new tariffs would rattle global supply chains and could lead to trade wars with allies like the EU, disrupting everything from consumer prices to international relations.
• Trump's administration would roll back free trade agreements, and instead negotiate bilateral deals focused on U.S. agricultural and manufacturing interests.
• Deregulation across sectors would allow industries — especially fossil fuels — to operate with fewer environmental or safety restrictions. Trump could repeal President Biden's signature Inflation Reduction Act, clawing back massive investments in green technologies.
• Domestic manufacturing may see a temporary boost. But long-term effects on global markets could strain, or change, relationships with key allies.

4. Culture wars intensify

Social and cultural issues would become legislative priorities, as Trump and the GOP lean heavily into the culture wars. Expect significant legislative attention on what the GOP calls "woke" policies in education and corporations.

• Efforts to defund diversity, equity and inclusion (DEI) initiatives would gain traction. New restrictions on gender-affirming care, particularly for minors, would become central to the agenda.
• Republican lawmakers would push anti-LGBTQ+ policies, and may seek to impose restrictions on teaching race and gender in schools.
• A Justice Department stacked with Trump loyalists could prosecute political enemies, including in the corporate world. Republican-led investigations into tech companies, accusing them of anti-conservative bias, would likely intensify.
• Schools, workplaces and local governments would become battlegrounds on issues of race, gender and free speech. Washington Republicans would side with local Republicans.
• Corporate America, under pressure from both sides, would struggle to balance these demands, with risk to consumer relations.

5. Judicial appointments, courts

With control over both chambers of Congress, Trump would have a clear path to nominate a new wave of conservative judges at every level of the federal judiciary.

• Expect multiple appointments to appellate courts and, potentially, another Supreme Court nomination.
• The federal bench would shift further right — making conservative rulings on abortion, voting rights and executive power more likely for decades to come.
• These judicial appointments would solidify conservative dominance in the courts, ensuring that many Republican-backed laws withstood legal challenges.
• Federal courts could reshape the landscape of civil rights, environmental regulation and immigration law for a generation.

6. Foreign policy, global relations

An unrestrained Trump surrounded by "America First" loyalists — rather than the generals and establishment hawks who held key posts in the first term — would take U.S. foreign policy in unpredictable directions.

• He'd likely withdraw further from international institutions, opting for bilateral deals focused on U.S. advantage. U.S. relations with some key allies would become strained as Trump focused on a more transactional, quid pro quo foreign policy.
• A strong anti-China stance would dominate, with tariffs and sanctions becoming central. Tensions with Beijing could escalate as GOP hawks push a "decoupling" agenda, roiling global markets and trade.
• Trump would likely move to cut off U.S. funding for Ukraine, forcing Kyiv into a peace settlement that favors Russia. He'd pressure NATO countries to ramp up their military spending, while broadly disengaging from the alliance's strategic priorities.
• Trump would seek to reinstate his "maximum pressure" sanctions campaign against Iran and empower Israel to "finish the job" of eliminating Hamas in Gaza and crippling Hezbollah in Lebanon.
• An emerging axis of right-wing populists would give Trump new friends on the world stage, empowered to reshape the liberal international order, strengthen borders and challenge "globalist" priorities like fighting climate change.

Post-election risks: This path could lead to significant instability. A close or contested election could mean protests or violence.

• Claims of voter fraud, particularly in key battleground states, could undermine confidence in the electoral system and inflame tensions. The legitimacy of institutions — especially the courts and election bodies — could come into question, deepening the divide between left and right.
• Protests — think the 2017 Women's March — are likely. Asked on Fox News about potential Election Day violence, Trump warned about "the enemy from within," and floated deploying the National Guard or military against "radical left lunatics."

Axios' Zachary Basu contributed reporting.

• Go deeper: Trump's "20 Core Promises" ... Latest "Behind the Curtain" columns.

🗓️ Join Jim VandeHei, Mike Allen, and Eleanor Hawkins this Thursday for an Axios Communicators Pro virtual conversation about this series. You'll hear how potential election outcomes will affect business — and what it means for communications leaders. Become a Comms Pro member to attend.