Chuck Schumer's danger signs on Senate toss-ups
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The warning signs are flashing for Democratic candidates in three of Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's most important states for playing defense.
Why it matters: The Rust Belt toss-ups of Michigan, Ohio and — as of Tuesday — Wisconsin could make the difference between a tiny GOP Senate majority next year or their biggest advantage since 2016.
- Schumer has strong incumbents in Wisconsin and Ohio. Both benefited from last running in 2018 when Donald Trump's name was off the ballot, but his presidency drove Democratic turnout.
- One of Schumer's earlier toss-ups — Montana — is trending the wrong way. Cook moved it last month to "lean Republican."
🦡 1) Wisconsin: We told you last week that Sen. Tammy Baldwin's (D) re-election fight was setting off alarms among Wisconsin Dems.
- On Tuesday, Cook tightened her race against wealthy GOP businessman Eric Hovde from "lean Dem" to "toss-up." Baldwin cleaned house in 2018, winning by 10 percentage points.
🔥 2) Ohio: Democratic incumbent Sherrod Brown is a red state survivor, but his once-sizable lead over Bernie Moreno has been shrinking.
- NRSC internal polling showed them deadlocked at 46%, the Hill reported today. Back in 2018, Brown won by seven percentage points.
⏰ 3) Michigan: Democratic nominee Rep. Elissa Slotkin has sounded the alarm as polling shows former Rep. Mike Rogers (R) closing in.
- Super PAC cash is flying into Michigan, as Axios reported. That includes $22.5 million from the GOP leader Mitch McConnell-aligned Senate Leadership Fund.
Zoom out: The good news largely stops there for Republicans, who came into the cycle with a historically favorable Senate map. The map's much better for Schumer's Democrats in 2026.
- The GOP has begun to triage: The NRSC has less than $1 million in ad reservations between both Arizona and Nevada — once considered pickup opportunities — from now until Election Day.
What they're saying: NRSC Communications Director Mike Berg said the party has seen "positive movement across the board" after being "outspent badly over the summer."
- DSCC Communications Director David Bergstein said the GOP's "flawed candidates are hurting their prospects across the entire Senate map — and while the NRSC is slashing their advertising the DSCC is going on offense."
The bottom line: Democrats are relying on good news in long-shot races, including ratings changes in their favor in Texas and Nebraska.
