Dems turn to Hail Marys in red states to save Senate chances
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Desperate Democrats, plagued by a brutal Senate map, are banking on upsets in one or more long-shot states — Texas, Florida or Nebraska — to save their narrow majority.
Why it matters: Dems are doomed if they don't win every single one of the closest races in the country (mapped above) — or make up for it with a shock win elsewhere.
Driving the news: Axios reported earlier this week that the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee is targeting Texas and Florida. Now the cash is on its way.
- The exact size of the ad buy isn't out there. We just know it's "multi-million," as DSCC Chair Gary Peters said at the National Press Club this morning.
- Democrats are hoping to offset Montana — where hope is fading — and Ohio, where Republicans are bullish.
- The spending isn't coming at Sen. Jon Tester's (D-Mont.) expense. "Tester will have everything that he needs to win," Peters said.
The big picture: Republicans will have a majority if they can win two seats. One — Sen. Joe Manchin's — is in the bag. They just need one more.
- The most likely tipping point is Montana. Polling in the state is sparse but Tester is solidly behind. The Cook Political Report rates it as "Lean R."
- Races in Ohio and Michigan, for seats Democrats currently hold, are rated toss-ups by Cook.
- Then there are close races with Democratic incumbents in Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. It's unlikely but even super-solid-blue Maryland is too close for comfort for Democrats.
Zoom in: Democrats now have no choice but to attempt a political Hail Mary: lean on a series of races with long odds but surprisingly narrow polling deficits.
Texas: Polls show the Senate election in Texas has grown shockingly tight. Sen. Ted Cruz, the fiery conservative, is ahead of congressman and former NFL player Colin Allred by three points, according to a FiveThirtyEight average.
- A Morning Consult poll last week showed Allred leading by one point, though well within the margin of error.
Florida: Democrats are contemplating a late blitz in the Florida and Texas Senate races, Axios' Hans Nichols and Stephen Neukam scooped.
- Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla) has just a two-point lead over former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell in the latest public poll.
- Florida and Texas "are real and we hope to get resources into those states," Sen. Gary Peters, the chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, told Axios on Tuesday.
Nebraska: A weird race — with no Democratic challenger running — has an independent candidate, veteran and mechanic Dan Osborn, statistically tied with Republican Sen. Debbie Fischer in multiple polls.
- An internal Osborn poll released yesterday showed him ahead by a point.
- Cook moved this Nebraska race (there's also a special election) from "Solid" to "Likely R."
- "The surge in GOP money in what should be a sleepy contest and the polling trend line, make it clear this is no longer a Solid race," Cook's Jessica Taylor writes.
Reality check: Each close state has massive red flags for Democrats who want to get their hopes up.
- Pundits have predicted Texas will move left for years. A Florida win would require a big polling miss in a state that's steadily moved right. Nebraska is hard to poll — and Osborn turned down a Democratic endorsement.
Between the lines: Senate Democrats have a sizable cash advantage over Republicans that they can afford to throw at risky bets.
- The Harris campaign, which has raised historic amounts of money, has poured funds into tight Senate races.
