Sleeper we're watching: Maryland's Senate race
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Democrats are flooding the Maryland Senate race with fresh cash, suggesting one of the country's bluest states is now a concern for Majority Leader Chuck Schumer's slim majority.
- Backers of Democratic nominee Angela Alsobrooks have nearly tripled TV broadcast and digital ad buys this month compared to August.
Why it matters: September will be a battle to define Alsobrooks. She is leading former Gov. Larry Hogan (R) by solid single digits in most public surveys, but roughly a third of voters don't know who she is.
- "Filling your refrigerator shouldn't be emptying your bank account," says the Prince George's County executive in one ad, filmed from her kitchen.
By the numbers: Alsobrooks' campaign and affiliate groups have reserved more than $5 million in September for video ads, according to AdImpact. Last month, those same groups spent $1.6 million.
- Hogan's numbers have stayed flat — $2.5 million in August and $2.6 reserved for September. More ad spending is expected to come in for Hogan.
Zoom out: Marylanders know — and largely like — the former two-term governor. But it's a state President Biden carried by 33 points.
- Hogan scored a 50%-19% favorability rating in a Gonzales Research & Media Services survey last month.
- That same poll has Alsobrooks winning 46%-41%. The poll had a 3.5% margin of error.
What gives Republicans hope is that Hogan's favorability numbers hold up across all demographics — including Black people, women and independents.
- They also flagged internal polling over the summer that had Hogan up.
- Hogan received a boost today when Sen. Joe Manchin, an independent from West Virginia, announced his endorsement for the former governor. "Forget about being a Democrat or Republican," said Manchin. "Larry Hogan is just the right person with the right attitude for the job."
Zoom in: Alsobrooks remains largely unknown, with some 34% of voters saying they don't recognize her name, in the Gonzales Research survey.
- The Cook Political Report still has Maryland's Senate race listed as a "likely D."
The bottom line: Alsobrooks is winning a race in which many voters don't have a strong sense of who she is.
- That strongly indicates voters favor any generic Democrat — even over a well-liked former governor.
