Scoop: Senate GOP sees deep blue Maryland seat within reach

Driving the news: During their weekly lunch, Senate Republicans discussed the state of 2024 races — and were presented with new internal data showing Hogan up 47% to 41% over Alsobrooks, according to sources in the room.

Reality check: Independent polling has not been so promising for Republicans. One survey from last month had Alsobrooks up 8% over Hogan.

• Maryland remains a deeply blue state that hasn't elected a Republican senator since 1980 so Hogan — despite his popularity and name ID— has an uphill battle to win the seat.
• Hogan has sought to distance himself from Trump, with whom he's long had a strained relationship, but it's unclear if those efforts will succeed.
• Still, the internal presentation shows just how bullish Republicans are about their chances in November — from the White House to the Senate to the House.

What they're saying: Alsobrooks, who is the Prince George county executive, was slammed as a "weak candidate, weak campaign," a source said.

• A slide presented to the room showed Republicans have booked $7 million worth of media in the state.

• Alsobrooks has just slightly more cash on hand — $1.9 million to $1.8 million.

The other side: "This race will determine who gets the 51st vote in the U.S. Senate," Alsobrooks campaign spokesperson Gina Ford told Axios.

• "Angela's focus is making sure we keep the United States Senate in Democratic hands and fighting for Maryland values —women's freedoms, economic opportunities, safe communities, and more," Ford added.
• Allies have argued that Alsobrooks is the best candidate to beat Hogan because she can turn out voters in large urban areas like Baltimore City and Prince George's County.

Editor's note: This story has been updated to include comment from Alsobrooks' campaign.