GOP badly outspent in most expensive House races
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The House GOP's worst fears are being confirmed, after they privately sounded the alarm all summer about getting outgunned.
Why it matters: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y) and his allies are outspending Republicans in nine of the 10 most expensive House races of the cycle.
- Still, seven of the most expensive seats are currently held by Democrats, bolstering the GOP's view that they are on offense in 2024.
- Money won't decide who controls of Congress, but it provides a clear advantage.
By the numbers: In the 10 most expensive races, the candidates, parties and outside super PACs are on track to spend $283 million in TV and digital ads, according to data compiled by AdImpact. More money could be dropping.
- That's not far off from what President George W. Bush spent on his entire presidential campaign 20 years ago — $345 million.
Zoom in: The most expensive race is for NY-19, in which Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.) is fending off a challenge from Josh Riley, for a combined $35 million.
- It's a rematch of the 2022 contest, in which they unloaded $18.5 million against each other.
- In MI-7, which includes Lansing, the parties have spent nearly $32.8 million — less so far than last cycle's $35.6 million, when it was the most expensive race in the country.
- The priciest race in which Republicans are matching Democratic spending is CA-27, where Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) and his opponent, George Whitesides, have each spent around $12.6 million.
What they are saying: "Republicans don't have to outspend Democrats in this strong political environment," said Jack Pandol, the communications director of the National Republican Congressional Committee.
- "But we must be in the game and on message — relentlessly litigating how we will improve voters' quality of life when we fire these Democratic incumbents."
- "Thanks to our historic fundraising advantage, Democrats are not only investing more on the airwaves, but we're able to invest in a holistic operation to get boots on the ground engaging voters and their communities where they are," said DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton.
Zoom out: Like a presidential race that's being contested in just seven states, the universe of competitive House seats in 2024 is smaller than any time in recent memory.
- Give or take, there are some 40 competitive House races, according to Cook Political Report.
- Two years ago, Republicans had a target list of 75 Democrats. This cycle it's around 40.
- The Democrats have 33 candidates in their Red to Blue program, which they use to funnel money to promising challengers and first-time candidates.
