There's a "zero percent" chance that the SEC's fights against companies like Coinbase and Uniswap Labs will be dropped if Harris wins the election, at least not to the thinking of Joshua Rivera, general counsel at Blockchain Capital.
Why it matters: SEC chair Gary Gensler has become a political lightning rod.
Between the lines: On a panel about the U.S. policy outlook for digital assets yesterday at Messari Mainnet, I raised the prospect of cases dropping under a friendlier administration.
"The expectation is that the Senate is going to flip to red. She's not going to remove Gensler and try to appoint another chair under a Republican Senate," Rivera said, referring to Harris. "From my perspective, it's a net negative."
The other side: One other panelist saw a chance for Gensler to go in a Harris administration.
It's an idea that's been raised by major Democratic donors on Wall Street, who have been pushing Harris to replace the SEC chair, along with FTC chair Lina Khan, Bloomberg reported last month.
(The last panelist broke the tie and sided with Rivera.)
The bottom line: All three agreed that a spirit of bipartisanship, long term, is the only sensible path for the industry, regardless.
