How Jill Stein could derail Democrats again

• "The election is going to be won in the margins … and that's where Stein and her people — and people who might come over to her — live," said Randall Miller, a professor emeritus at Saint Joseph's University.

Driving the news: Stein typically has pulled more support from Democratic-leaning voters, and in 2016 her vote totals in the "Blue Wall" swing states of Wisconsin and Michigan were greater than the margins Clinton lost to Trump by in those states.

• Stein also drew nearly 49,000 votes in Pennsylvania, another Blue Wall swing state — though Clinton lost to Trump there by more than 68,000 votes.

Stein is back on the ballot in these battlegrounds this year, and is polling slightly lower nationwide and in those Blue Wall states — between 1 and 2 percentage points — than she did in 2016.

• "It's very clear that voters attracted to third parties ... are 'soft Democrats' who might otherwise vote for our nominee," said Matt Bennett, executive vice president for public affairs at center-left think tank Third Way.

Zoom in: Metro Detroit, home to one of the country's largest Arab-American populations, could see the highest share of Stein supporters because of voters' opposition to the Biden-Harris administration's handling of the war in Gaza. During the 2020 election, Michigan's Arab American and Muslim American population helped fuel Biden's victory.

• A poll conducted in late August by the Council on American-Islamic Relations advocacy group found that 40% of Muslim voters in Michigan backed Stein; 18% favored Trump and 12% supported Harris.

Between the lines: Some strategists think the impact Stein appeared to have on the 2016 election could minimize her influence this time.

• "I think that voters, especially Democratic voters, are very cognizant of Jill Stein and others because of what happened before in this state," said Larry Ceisler, a Pennsylvania-based public affairs executive.

Zoom out: Third-party voters are unpredictable, so it's also possible that Stein steals some votes from Trump. But Miller says that's unlikely because "people have made up their minds about Trump."

• Republicans throughout this election cycle have tried to prop up third-party candidates in hopes of siphoning votes from Harris.
• The Wall Street Journal reported this month that FEC filings showed that Stein paid $100,000 to a consulting firm that has worked with GOP campaigns and Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s independent presidential bid.

What they're saying: In a statement, Harris' campaign said the election "remains incredibly close" and that it's "taking nothing for granted — our campaign has its foot on the gas to make sure our broad and diverse coalition turns out."

Stein's campaign rejected the notion that she is a spoiler. "In a true democracy there is no such thing as a spoiler," it said in a statement.

• "If anything is spoiling Democrats' chances of winning the presidency in 2024 it is their own failure to pass policies that improve the lives of the majority of working-class and marginalized people who have lost faith in the system," the statement said.

Democrats have tried to undermine third-party efforts through actions such as legal challenges challenging candidates' eligibility to be on state ballots — and in Stein's case, highlighting her past positions.

• "Jill Stein is a spoiler for Trump who is working hand in hand with Republican consultants and Trump's former personal lawyer to get her on the ballot in swing states," Adrienne Watson, an adviser to the DNC, said in a statement.
• Stein's campaign said it wasn't unusual for "professional petitioners to work for various parties and causes" to help get them listed on ballots.

The bottom line: Bennett said third-party candidates pose "vastly less danger" to Democrats since President Biden suspended his campaign because of the decline in "double hater" voters.

• But "there may still be some people who would otherwise vote for Harris, who are thinking about voting for Stein or [Cornel] West or somebody else. Those people matter a lot."

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