What’s inside RFK Jr.’s parting gift for Trump
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Robert F. Kennedy Jr. speaks at the Libertarian National Convention on May 24 in Washington, D.C. Photo: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images
Robert F. Kennedy Jr.'s much-spoiled exit from the presidential race won't pack the same pop as if he'd done it earlier this summer.
- Kennedy averaged 15.5% in general election polls on July 1, per Nate Silver's model. Now he's around 4%.
Why it matters: Kennedy's plunging relevancy and bizarre news cycles raises doubts on how many votes he can really move to former President Trump's column.
- Kennedy is suspending his campaign and seeking to remove his name from ballots in battleground states, he said Friday. His move followed conversations with Trump.
- "That's big," Trump said in response to the news of Kennedy's exit.
Driving the news: Polling models predict a modest change following Kennedy's departure, but election analysts say that even those estimates may be overstated.
- "Those figures represent an average of all Harris-Trump-Kennedy polls in our database — but RFK was previously polling higher than he was now," per Silver.
- According to FiveThirtyEight's G. Elliott Morris, Harris led Trump in their model by 3.3 percentage points earlier this week in a race with Kennedy. Without Kennedy, Harris led by 3.1 points.
State of play: Look to Democrats to highlight Trump's new alliance with Kennedy as a sign of weakness.
- "Like RFK Jr., Donald Trump is at a low point and acting out of desperation," said a Democratic National Committee memo out Friday.
- The Harris campaign reportedly rejected an offer from Kennedy for an endorsement in exchange for a Cabinet position.
- The campaign says the election will likely come down to seven key states — Arizona, Nevada, Georgia, Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and North Carolina — plus Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District.
Between the lines: Third-party candidates often lose support on Election Day, Arizona-based GOP strategist Barrett Marson told Axios.
- "Some of those third party voters will wake up on the day that they are voting and realize, 'this is just a protest vote, but if I actually want to have a say, then I need to vote for either Harris or Trump.'"
- "Few people will vote for another candidate just because their candidate drops out and endorses someone else," said Larry Sabato of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.
Zoom out: Once considered the biggest wild card of the 2024 election, Kennedy struggled to sustain his momentum once Harris entered the race.
- He recently admitted to leaving a dead bear in Central Park and claimed that a worm ate part of his brain.
- Trump is hoping that Kennedy's endorsement could play a role in a close election after recent polls showed Kennedy taking more from the former president than Harris.
Go deeper: RFK Jr. struggles in upended 2024 race
