Reporter's notebook — D.C.

Based on Axios Crypto's trip to D.C. last week, it's clear to me that folks who care about blockchain policy are thinking about the lame-duck session.

Why it matters: The next Congress and White House are a horizon right now. No one can see over it, which makes it impossible to reliably envision how anything gets done in that not-so-distant future.

State of play: House Financial Services Chair Patrick McHenry very much wants to pass crypto legislation before he leaves Congress at the end of this term.

• Sen. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer is working to build industry support for Vice President Kamala Harris before the election, and is interested in passing some kind of legislation — if for nothing else so that advocacy group Stand With Crypto will credit congressional Democrats with something.

🥃 Glass half full: "I think there are minor tweaks that can be made to the Senate Ag Committee bill that could mean it gets out of committee this year. I don't really want to wait, because there is going to be so much to do early on in 2025," Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) said at a Georgetown business school event last Tuesday.

• "Europe is way ahead of us," she told the room. "By deferring to the SEC on this, we have really stubbed our toes."

Zoom out: Lummis was pushing crypto legislation before it was cool, a point that her partner in that effort, Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) made Thursday at Axios' State of Play for Crypto on Capitol Hill event.

• Lummis spoke to something Axios has heard elsewhere, that it might be paired up with SAFER Banking, legislation that would make it easier for legal marijuana businesses to get access to banking services.

🥃 Glass half empty: There is still plenty standing in the way of any action this year.

• Senate Banking Chair Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-Ohio) has been a champion for SAFER Banking but a major critic of the cryptocurrency industry. And he's in the middle of what might be the most fiercely fought re-election campaign in the country.
• Meanwhile, Senate Republicans have an incentive to hold off until they're in the majority. Then they can get all the credit.

Inside the room: In private conversations with House staff on whether legislation might move in the lame duck, folks were less convinced.

• The path is unclear and everything hinges on the election outcome.

💭 Our thought bubble: The most likely scenario in all outcomes after Nov. 5 is that nothing changes.

• Gridlock being gridlock and government being slow, there's a good chance paper will still be getting pushed around by this time next year.

The bottom line: "My expectations for Congress doing anything are low. And on this, I'm modestly higher than my default rate," Rep. McHenry said on stage in Georgetown.