Swing state voters back Trump over Harris on key global questions: poll
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Trump and Harris at their Sep. 10 debate. Photo: Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty
Voters in six key swing states think former President Trump is more likely than Vice President Harris to end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza, respond effectively to a potential Chinese attack on Taiwan, and advance U.S. interests internationally, according to new polling from the Institute for Global Affairs.
Why it matters: President Biden will give a farewell address to the world Tuesday at the UN General Assembly. Voters will soon decide between relative continuity with Harris, or a 180-degree turn back to a predecessor Biden has portrayed as a danger to global security.
By the numbers: Voters nationwide narrowly see Harris (52% to 48%) as better able to strongly defend U.S. interests, according to the poll. But Trump leads 56% to 44% in that category among voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
- The gap is wider in favor of Trump (58% to 42%) in the swing states on the question of who is more likely to end the wars in Gaza and Ukraine. By the same 58% to 42% margin, swing state voters see Trump as more likely to respond effectively if China makes a move on Taiwan.
- Trump also leads Harris (56% to 44%) in the swing states on his signature issue: immigration policy.
- Harris narrowly leads Trump nationally on the questions of who would respond more effectively to a major global crisis (52% to 48%) or improve America's reputation (53% to 47%). But once again those gaps are wiped out when you zoom in on the swing states.
Between the lines: Harris' foreign policy vision is less well-defined for voters than Trump's, particularly in the swing states Trump's campaign has been bombarding with messaging for months, says Mark Hannah, a senior fellow at the Institute for Global Affairs.
- "We've seen that independents in battleground states tend to prefer a less interventionist foreign policy. So the fact that voters see Trump as more likely to end the wars in Ukraine and Gaza might strengthen his popularity," Hannah notes.
Reality check: While foreign policy is arguably the area on which presidents have the most direct influence, it has not been a major issue for voters this cycle, with the exception of immigration.
Methodology: The Institute for Global Affairs polled 1,865 voting-age adults — 1,000 of them in six swing states — in the U.S. between August 15 and August 22, 2024. The margins of error both nationally and in the pooled swing states are +/-3.9%.
