Biden's ever-changing theory of victory
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Illustration: Eniola Odetunde/Axios. Photos: Frederic J. Brown/Getty Images
The Biden campaign has consistently argued that upcoming inflection points would change the course of the race — only for those events to come and go without notably improving President Biden's standing in the polls.
The big picture: Facing ominous polling dating back to early in the Republican primary, the Biden campaign maintained that the race would move in his favor once Trump was nominated and a binary choice emerged for voters.
- But since Nikki Haley ended her campaign in March, Biden has remained behind in a critical mass of swing states, according to Bloomberg News/Morning Consult polling.
The debate was also supposed to help Biden by illuminating the contrasts with Trump. The New York Times reported before the debate that the Biden campaign "believes it has already won a major victory by persuading the Trump campaign to agree to move the first debate to late June."
- Instead, it fueled a full-fledged panic among Democrats that still hasn't subsided.
Biden's post-debate cleanup — campaign rallies, an interview with George Stephanopoulos, and a call-in on Morning Joe — have failed to reset the narrative, at least so far.
- While it's too early to see any effects yet in polling, the Cook Political Report yesterday reclassified three swing states from Toss Up to Lean Republican.
What to watch: Some campaign officials believe the Republican National Convention next week will change the news cycle and redirect attention toward Trump's extremism.
- And Team Biden has long hoped that an improving economy would turn voters in his direction. But even with inflation subsiding, Biden has had a hard time persuading voters to give him credit.
- Trump continues to lead polling over Biden on the issue of who would be better for inflation, despite Trump's inflationary policy proposals.
- Biden has struggled to get voters to recognize the improving state of affairs, with one poll showing that 56% of Americans (incorrectly) think the economy is in recession, while nearly half (incorrectly) believed the stock market was down for the year.
What's next: Biden's next two televised tests come Thursday in a rare press conference and Monday night in a primetime interview with NBC's Lester Holt.
