Behind the Curtain: Trump's Kamala Harris plan
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President Biden and Vice President Harris watch fireworks from the Truman Balcony of the White House on Thursday night. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images
Former President Trump strongly prefers running against President Biden than another Democrat, particularly after reviewing the latest polling. But he's preparing a brutal assault on Vice President Kamala Harris if she's the nominee, advisers tell us.
Why it matters: Trump's attacks on her would surprise few. He'd argue Harris is too liberal, too hostile to business and secure borders, and too inexperienced, weak and phony to be president. But some of his advisers are quite concerned that a fresh, youthful, non-Biden ticket presents a bigger threat than Trump assumes.
President Biden insisted again Thursday in an unscripted remark, after a supporter at a Fourth of July event on the White House South Lawn yelled that they needed him, and to keep up the fight: "You got me, man! I'm not going anywhere."
- But among political players in both parties, coast to coast, the holiday was consumed by backstage conversations about contingencies if Biden dropped out.
What would scare Trump most is if Democrats were to build a new ticket from scratch, topped by a moderate Democrat from a swing state. This seems unlikely for reasons we outlined Thursday in our column, "Harris' epic edge."
- Trump advisers read the same polls you do: They know lots of voters want someone younger, sensible, experienced. They know all that matters is persuadable voters in seven swing states. They know these swing voters mostly consider themselves independent.
The intrigue: If Democrats picked a moderate Midwestern male as Harris' running mate, the Harris-topped ticket would be more formidable, Republicans tell us.
- The Trump team's biggest concern, and some early polling flicks at why, is that Harris would help turn out more women, who historically vote in greater numbers than men. Harris — armed with Democrats' abortion message, which worked well in off-year elections — could leverage the nation's gender divide.
Another concern: Harris would put in play two things working in Trump's advantage right now — vitality and energy. Trump knows he seemed exponentially quicker and more energetic than Biden on the debate stage, and that many Democrats are unenthused about this ticket more broadly.
- Harris changes this. At 59 (turning 6-0 two weeks before the election), she's two decades younger. A new ticket could yank Democrats out of their post-debate funk.
Trump's advisers worry he has no filter, and recognize that attacking a Black American, South Asian American woman could backfire among swing voters, where they think they're making inroads.
- So there'd be a big risk for him if the ABC News debate goes ahead on Sept. 10.
Between the lines: Trump also could take a timing hit. He'll announce his VP (probably male) in coming days, then accept the GOP nomination in Milwaukee on July 18 — 13 days from now. But many voters will be on vacation, and views of him are fully baked.
- Then a month later, Democrats would have a shot at redefining the race at their convention in Chicago — and, given the newness of it all, likely attract a bigger audience.
But Trump is getting ready for the possibility.
- Trump on Thursday gave Harris a nickname — always a sign he takes an opponent seriously. "Laffin' Kamala Harris," he said on his Truth Social platform, referring to the right's spliced clips of her giddier moments. (A Trump campaign statement the day before had called her "Cackling Copilot Kamala Harris.")
- The Trump campaign's Jason Miller said Harris "owns all of the Biden incompetence and failure, plus she adds radical ideology. Biden kowtows to California liberals. She actually is one."
- A CNN poll released Tuesday found independents back Harris, 43%-40% over Trump, and moderates prefer her, 51-39%.
Behind the scenes: Trump advisers contend Harris would do worse than Biden with blue-collar workers across the "blue wall" of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania — states the Democratic nominee absolutely has to win.
- One Republican operative is so convinced of that, he said mischievously that if he were a Biden campaign official trying to save the president's candidacy, he'd use a super PAC or other outside group to leak swing-state polling data about Harris.
Campaign strategists tell us that if Harris became the nominee, Republicans would keep pushing her on how Biden is fit to remain in office if not fit to run.
- Harris also is a convenient face of the border crisis, one of Trump's top two issues, along with the economy ("inflation and invasion," as some Trump insiders say). Biden announced in March 2021 that Harris would lead his administration's efforts on the southern border: "When she speaks, she speaks for me. Doesn't have to check with me. She knows what she's doing, and I hope we can move this along."
- The Biden-Harris campaign told us in response: "Vice President Harris is proud to be President Biden's running mate. We know Donald Trump is prone to unhinged rants against prosecutors who hold him accountable, but the Vice President will keep making the case against his support of abortion bans, violent insurrections, and more tax cuts for billionaires."
The other side: Harris supporters tell us she could reset the race in ways that benefit Democrats. At the top of the list:
- She immediately ensures the fall of Roe is a main focus of the race.
- With a younger nominee, Democrats would try to make the age/fitness issue the GOP's problem.
- Harris — who was elected San Francisco district attorney, and was California attorney general — would allow Dems to frame the race as a former prosecutor vs. a convicted felon.
Of course, all of this is for naught if Biden nails his interview with ABC's George Stephanopoulos in Wisconsin (to be shown as a prime-time special Friday at 8pm ET) and fights on. But the pressure to bow out is only intensifying.
