Scoop: Pro-Israel group wages fight over Democrats' Gaza stance
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President Biden speaks at a campaign event in Philadelphia on Wednesday. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images
A prominent pro-Israel group is trying to calm the nerves of Democratic elected officials who fear continued support for Israel will lead to disaster in November, Axios has learned.
Why it matters: The push from Democratic Majority For Israel (DMFI) comes as President Biden and other pro-Israel members of his party have grown increasingly critical of their Middle East ally's conduct in Gaza in recent months.
- Other more staunchly pro-Israel lawmakers, including some Democrats, have alleged the shift is geared toward repairing Democrats' fracturing electoral coalition.
Driving the news: DMFI is sending a memo to campaigns and members of Congress arguing that "support for pro-Israel policies is not damaging," according to a copy first shared with Axios.
- The memo leans on polling that suggests voters do not rank the war in Gaza as a high priority, that it has had little impact on the presidential race and that pro-Israel Democrats generally are stronger than their pro-Palestinian colleagues.
- "People sometimes mistake volume for percentage, and the fact that some people are very loud doesn't make them the majority. ... It doesn't even make them a substantial minority," said DMFI president Mark Mellman.
The backdrop: Pro-Palestinian activists launched a nationwide effort during this year's Democratic primaries urging progressives to vote "uncommitted" as a protest of Biden's support for Israel.
- The campaign led 19% of Democratic primary voters in Minnesota and 13% in Michigan to vote uncommitted rather than back Biden.
- Many Democrats have voiced concerns about turnout and support among young and Arab American voters — two typically solid Democratic voting blocs — as a result.
- But DMFI argues the impact of the uncommitted movement has been overblown, pointing to New York Times polling indicating that Michigan is Biden's strongest swing state with likely voters.
What we're hearing: Some pro-Israel Democrats on Capitol Hill are taking DMFI's message to heart.
- Progressives rebelling over Gaza "get so much attention, but it's a small group," one House Democrat told Axios.
The other side: "If people don't think that will have a negative electoral effect on Biden in a tight election, they either have their heads in the sand or are deliberately misleading people," Layla Elabed, a leader of the Uncommitted National Movement, told Axios in a statement.
- Justice Democrats spokesperson Usamah Andrabi said Biden is "alienating reliable Democratic voters" and DMFI is "leading him on a path to losing to Donald Trump."
- Another progressive strategist pointed to polling that suggests half of Biden voters believe Israel is committing genocide and that a majority of 2020 Biden voters think the U.S. has been too supportive of Israel.
Between the lines: Some liberal groups such as J Street, which has been critical of Biden at times for not doing more to rein in Israel, are trying to thread the needle.
- Spokesperson Tali deGroot said in a statement that "re-electing President Biden has to be the top priority" and that "the risk of a second Trump presidency to our country and our democracy is too serious to disregard the very real concerns many voters have about the situation in Gaza."
- "It's in everyone's interests — including Israel's interests — to end this war, free the hostages, stop the humanitarian catastrophe, and chart a course for a peaceful future free of terror and injustice.'
