Aging population puts pressure on health care labor
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Health care is uniquely vulnerable to worker shortages as the U.S. population ages over the next decade, according to a new Moody's analysis.
Why it matters: That means providers could face even higher costs in the coming years or, if positions go unfilled, some patients may go without the care they need.
The big picture: The growing portion of the population 65 and older is expected to place unique labor demands on health care compared with other parts of the economy.
- Not only will retiring workers need to be replaced, but the greater number of seniors will also increase overall demand for health care.
- "The health care and social assistance sector's outsized labor demand and highly labor-intensive operations represent an extraordinary test of labor market dynamics going forward," the Moody's analysts write.
By the numbers: The health care sector is expected to add 2.1 million jobs through 2032, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics — 45% of all job growth in the next decade, the analysis notes.
- Nurse practitioner employment is expected to see a growth rate of 45%, physician assistants by 27% and home health and personal care aides by 22%.
- Patients and employers who provide health insurance to their employees will likely bear the brunt of rising costs, including labor costs, Moody's notes.
Between the lines: The greying of America will exacerbate tensions already on display today.
- Kaiser Permanente workers led the largest health care strike in U.S. history last year, and health care workers across the country have become increasingly frustrated with their working conditions in the post-pandemic era.
- Providers and insurers are increasingly engaging in public disputes over price negotiations and coverage policies, like prior authorization, designed to keep costs in check.
- Although staffing shortages have abated, hospitals complained for months about how much they were being forced to pay for contract labor.
- And some of the subsectors expected to grow the most — like long-term care and home health care — are the same ones that struggle the most to attract and retain workers.
The bottom line: America's aging population is both a business crisis and a threat to patient care in the near future.
