Democrats pin 2024 hopes and fears on Biden's State of the Union

• "We are all nervous," said one House Democrat, citing concerns about the 81-year-old Biden's "ability to speak without blowing things."
• Another House Democrat said: "Listen, Trump has made rhetorical slips … Biden is going to make rhetoric slips, I think the key is his energy level."

Zoom in: Former House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) told Axios he expects a strong performance: "It's important that it be good."

• "There's no doubt that he has the vigor [for a second term], but that's being questioned," said Hoyer. "He's quick, and he needs to show that."
• "Of the various speeches a president gives, the State of the Union in an election year is a big one," said Rep. Dan Kildee (D-Mich.).
• Longtime Democratic strategist Doug Sosnik — who regularly publishes analyses of the 2024 campaign — told Axios: "Given concerns about Biden's age, his delivery will be as important as his substance."

Between the lines: Many Democrats pointed to Biden's verbal sparring with right-wing hecklers at last year's State of the Union as a reason to have faith in his rhetorical abilities.

• "He owned the Republicans when they tried to heckle him," said Rep. Ted Lieu (D-Calif.), vice chair of the House Democratic Caucus, predicting Biden will do an "outstanding job."
• Others pointed to President Trump, saying the contrast between the two will ultimately be Biden's saving grace.
• Another House Democrat offered a simpler rationale for their confidence: "The State of the Union is a speech that's programmed. It's not a debate."

The other side: Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.), at a GOP Conference meeting on Wednesday, discouraged House Republicans from heckling Biden.

• "The underlying message is it was bad form [last year] and ultimately helps the President. Let him babble on without our interrupting," said one House Republican who was present.

• Rep. Jared Moskowitz (D-Fla.) predicted Biden would "get interrupted many times by my colleagues across the aisle" in an attempt to force gaffes.
• "It's going to be early, in my opinion. And it's not going to be one or two members. I think they're looking to turn it into a mess."

By the numbers: The State of the Union is watched by tens of millions of people — 27 million in 2023 — making it Biden's best opportunity to reach voters before November.

• "It's going to be one of the biggest audiences that the president will have this year, so it's a huge opportunity to make the case," said Rep. Greg Landsman (D-Ohio).

The bottom line: A Democratic strategist, speaking on the condition of anonymity, said simply, "Let's see some main character energy!"

Go deeper: Biden's reset moment

Editor's note: This story has been corrected to reflect that Hoyer is the former majority leader.