Poll: Almost a third of Republicans have low trust in the GOP primary
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A person voting in a Democratic primary in New York in June 2020. Photo: Johannes Eisele/AFP via Getty Images
Almost a third of Republicans have only a little trust or none at all that votes will be counted correctly during the upcoming Republican presidential primary, according to data released Wednesday from an AP-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research survey.
Why it matters: The poll of 1,074 adults suggests that a sizeable portion of the Republican Party not only lacks faith in the accuracy of next year's presidential election but may also not trust contests managed by the party itself.
- The skepticism of the Republican Party comes as former President Trump continues to command a major lead over other primary candidates, according to previous polls among Republican and Republican-leaning voters.
Of note: According to AP-NORC data, voters who identified as Democrats or Democrat-leaning were more likely to have more faith in the outcome of the Republican primary than Republicans or Republican-leaning voters, according to AP.
- On the other hand, Republicans were far more likely to mistrust the outcome of the upcoming Democratic primary, with 58% saying they had little to no trust in the contest.
By the numbers: Among Republicans, 37% said they had either "a great deal" or "quite a bit" of faith in the outcome of their party's primary, while 31% said they had "a moderate amount" of trust, and 31% said they had "only a little" or "none at all."
- 72% of Democrats said they have at least "quite a bit" of faith in the accuracy of the Democratic primary, while only 8% said they had "only a little or none at all."
- Independents, who don't identify with either party but may vote in some party primaries, overall lacked confidence in both party's processes.
Yes, but: In total, the survey polled more people who identified as strong Democrats or as leaning toward the Democratic party than those who identified as strong Republicans or as leaning toward the Republican party.
- While the overall poll had a margin of error of ± 4.0 percentage points, its margin of error for subgroups was higher.
- For Democrats, it was ± 6.0 percentage points, and for Republicans, it was ± 6.4 percentage points.
The big picture: For the 2024 presidential election, 46% of those surveyed said they have "a great deal or "quite a bit" of faith that votes will be counted correctly.
- That percentage is roughly in line with polls that AP-NORC conducted earlier this year and in 2022. It's also seven percentage points higher than a survey AP-NORC held in September 2016.
- In their most recent survey, 31% of people responded with "only a little" or "none at all" when asked how much confidence they have in the outcome of the upcoming presidential election.
- That figure was similar to results from previous AP-NORC surveys from earlier this year and going back to 2016.
Go deeper: Haley, DeSantis neck-and-neck for second place in GOP primary: poll
Methodology: This poll surveyed 1,074 U.S. adults between Nov. 30 and Dec. 4 and has a margin of error of ± 4.0 percentage points.
