Ukraine's best hope
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Ukrainian soldiers in the newly liberated village of Blahodatne on June 10. Photo: Serhii Mykhalchuk/Global Images Ukraine via Getty Images
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky believes Russia will lose the war if Kyiv's long-awaited counteroffensive is successful, he told NBC News in his first interview since his military campaign kicked off last week.
Why it matters: Ukraine is fighting the clock not just in Europe, where Russia's brutal invasion has caused mass destruction and killed tens of thousands of people — but also in Washington, where partisan politics is the top threat to the flow of aid sustaining Ukraine's military.
- Significant territorial gains in the coming months would strengthen Kyiv's negotiating hand and bolster President Biden's case for backing Ukraine on the battlefield, rather than push for an immediate settlement.
- The timing is urgent as the U.S. barrels toward an election year that could reduce the political appetite for huge spending, especially in a Republican Party whose conservative base has grown more hostile toward Ukraine.
Driving the news: House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) has ruled out a supplemental aid package for Ukraine sought by hawkish GOP senators, citing the spending caps agreed to in his debt ceiling deal with Biden.
- "They’re not going to circumvent what we’re doing here," McCarthy told Punchbowl News, committing to dealing with any Ukraine funding through the appropriations process.
- But some pro-Ukraine Republicans fear it won't be possible to secure additional aid in the budget without cutting competing Pentagon programs, given the $886 billion limit agreed to for defense spending.
Between the lines: Adding to the quandary is a renewed threat from the most conservative House Republicans, who — furious about the debt ceiling deal — ground the House chamber to a halt last week.
- The rebels — many of whom have long opposed Ukraine aid — are demanding government spending levels well below the caps Biden and McCarthy agreed to, threatening a government showdown this fall.
- "We need to prepare," Rep. Andy Biggs (R-Ariz.) told the New York Times about plans to rally against additional Ukraine funding in particular. "I know it’s coming; I just don’t know when it’s coming."
Zoom in: Former President Trump, whose vow to "end the war in 24 hours" is widely considered a euphemism for forcing Ukraine to capitulate, remains by far the frontrunner to win the Republican nomination.
- Tucker Carlson, one of the most influential conservative critics of the war effort, baselessly claimed this week that Trump was indicted because of his "unapproved views about Ukraine," rather than his mishandling of classified documents.
- "Criticize our wars, and you're disqualified. Keep it up, and we'll send you to prison," Carlson said on his new Twitter show, calling Trump the only presidential contender "who dissents from Washington's longstanding, pointless war agenda."
The bottom line: Asked by NBC whether he sometimes feels like he is fighting "to a U.S. political timeline," Zelensky replied unequivocally: "Yes."
