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Graphing the pandemic

National

In a year that smashed a lot of records, another trend became apparent to data journalists: Charts were showing shocking shifts in unemployment, debt, anxiety and depression, alcohol use and worldwide deaths, sometimes climbing at nearly 90-degree angles.

Why it matters: Changes that typically take months or years to show up on a trend line started happening in weeks — resulting in a year of numerical outliers that will be breaking the axis for decades to come.

Y-axes need to be continually adjusted to accommodate ever-higher numbers.

Longer term, there's now a year of graphical outliers that future charts will have to account for.

Between the lines: Journalists and non-journalists alike became avid consumers of data dashboards, with charts and maps showing the latest numbers.

Journalists initially struggled with finding reliable sources of data in a world that was suddenly overrun by a novel coronavirus. 

Just as importantly, they struggled to make sense of the little data they did have, using trial and error to learn which metrics were important and why.

While the U.S. officially declared the coronavirus pandemic a national emergency one year ago today on March 13, visuals teams could see it coming much earlier as they tracked the infection's worldwide spread and the escalating trajectory of deaths via maps, timelines and charts.

What started as a project mapping worldwide cases became more local as the virus hit closer to home — and a color ramp that once showed 50 cases in dark red changed by orders of magnitude.

The bottom line: 2020 was a literally off-the-charts year.

1. 2020: The year the y-axis broke

Visuals Deep Dive looks at the drastic changes in America from COVID-19

Moving chart showing COVID-19 daily cases over one year as the axes adjust upward

Data: New York Times; Chart: Michelle McGhee/Axios

Deep Dive – Graphing the Pandemic

Media

Coronavirus

In a year that smashed a lot of records, another trend became apparent to data journalists: Charts were showing shocking shifts in <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="unemployment" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/million-unemployment-claims-weekly-d68a9090-4362-4c3f-9a59-5c6d6c078d69.html" data-vars-content-id="080f6fc2-4b04-47ad-bc3b-5b199c8ea562" data-vars-headline="2020: The year the y-axis broke" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/million-unemployment-claims-weekly-d68a9090-4362-4c3f-9a59-5c6d6c078d69.html" target="_self">unemployment</a>, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="debt" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/global-debt-gdp-898959ed-f96a-4c4d-85a3-5d3cc419631f.html" data-vars-content-id="080f6fc2-4b04-47ad-bc3b-5b199c8ea562" data-vars-headline="2020: The year the y-axis broke" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/global-debt-gdp-898959ed-f96a-4c4d-85a3-5d3cc419631f.html" target="_self">debt</a>, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="anxiety and depression" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/mental-health-coronavirus-pandemic-depression-suicide-c09ad125-10a9-44b0-a91d-ca40656816aa.html" data-vars-content-id="080f6fc2-4b04-47ad-bc3b-5b199c8ea562" data-vars-headline="2020: The year the y-axis broke" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/mental-health-coronavirus-pandemic-depression-suicide-c09ad125-10a9-44b0-a91d-ca40656816aa.html" target="_self">anxiety and depression</a>, <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="alcohol use" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-future-74b35dee-e524-426f-a5f0-158b8e3b0f73.html?chunk=1&amp;utm_term=twsocialshare#story1" data-vars-content-id="080f6fc2-4b04-47ad-bc3b-5b199c8ea562" data-vars-headline="2020: The year the y-axis broke" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/newsletters/axios-future-74b35dee-e524-426f-a5f0-158b8e3b0f73.html?chunk=1&amp;utm_term=twsocialshare#story1" target="_self">alcohol use</a> and <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="worldwide deaths" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-latest-developments-8b8990c4-6762-494a-8ee0-5091746bda9b.html" data-vars-content-id="080f6fc2-4b04-47ad-bc3b-5b199c8ea562" data-vars-headline="2020: The year the y-axis broke" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/coronavirus-latest-developments-8b8990c4-6762-494a-8ee0-5091746bda9b.html" target="_self">worldwide deaths</a>, sometimes climbing at nearly 90-degree angles.Why it matters: Changes that typically take months or years to show up on a trend line started happening in weeks — resulting in a year of numerical outliers that will be breaking the axis for decades to come.

The U.S. health system faces critical questions about cost, access and equity. Technological advances and new discoveries about diseases like cancer and Alzheimer’s are transforming patient care and reshaping public health.

Health

Top stories & latest news on the Federal Reserve, real-time data, plus the biggest shifts happening in the U.S. and global economy.

Economy

After a record economic expansion, the coronavirus pandemic sent the U.S. economy into a recession as unemployment soared to staggering heights. The country now faces urgent questions about how much stimulus is needed for reeling consumers and businesses, and what a recovery might look like.

Economy & Business

Finish Line

Axios Finish Line

Data: FRED; Graphic: Michelle McGhee and Aïda Amer/Axios

In February 2020, right before the start of the pandemic, American women outnumbered men in the labor market. Since then, more than 2 million women have dropped out of the workforce, compared with 1.7 million men.

Why it matters: The pandemic has erased decades of workplace progress, and it could take many years for women to return to where they were at the start of 2020.

What's happening: Many women who dropped out of the labor force are mothers, who in general take on a disproportionate portion of child care and household responsibilities.

Once the pandemic hit and children were sent home from school, many left their jobs to manage the chaos at home.

Now, the majority of kids are back in school, but the damage will be difficult to undo.

Women who've left work may have trouble coming back to roles at the same level or coming back at all. After the last recession, in 2008, it was harder for women to return to work than men.

On top of that, when women do return to work after taking time off, their salary offers are on average 7% lower than those of other candidates who haven't interrupted their careers, according to compensation analysis company PayScale.

The bottom line: This sort of labor force shrinkage is bad news for the U.S. economy, and bringing women back to work — rapidly — will be essential for the post-pandemic recovery.

2. Pandemic was devastating for America's working women

The coronavirus pandemic has erased decades of women's workplace progress.

In February 2020, right before the start of the pandemic, American women outnumbered men in the labor market. Since then, more than 2 million women have dropped out of the workforce, compared with 1.7 million men.Why it matters: The pandemic has erased decades of workplace progress, and it could take many years for women to return to where they were at the start of 2020.

Monthly U.S. business applications

Starting a new business in the middle of a global pandemic is daunting. But the uncertainty of an uneven recovery in employment, coupled with the unusual circumstances of a prolonged lockdown, served as the backdrop for hundreds of thousands of Americans to do just that. 

Why it matters: The rate at which entrepreneurs kick-started companies over the past year far outpaced the same metric reached during the Great Recession as would-be business owners hoped to turn quarantine into opportunity. 

What’s happening: The number of business applications peaked in June of last year, hitting the highest point since 2004, and then declined after the pandemic hit. 

But there has been a “freakish” turnaround in those applications starting in December, notes Swati Bhatt, an economics professor at Princeton University who closely monitors this data.  

“What I believe is this is when the rubber hits the road. …  We are seeing an implementation of all these technologies coming together in what might be causally called an app-based economy.”

Yes, but: Business applications for February fell 13.4% from the prior month, while the number of projected business formations dipped 13.2%, according to U.S. Census Bureau data.  

3. Entrepreneurs look for luck in pandemic lockdown

Hundreds of thousands of Americans tried to start a new business during the pandemic.

Starting a new business in the middle of a global pandemic is daunting. But the uncertainty of an <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="uneven recovery" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/february-jobs-report-biden-b289b0fb-e7ce-4066-8407-871bffeaaa1a.html?stream=top&amp;utm_source=alert&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=alerts_all" data-vars-content-id="630b404c-e845-4c72-8823-3e46dcec6b0e" data-vars-headline="Entrepreneurs look for luck in pandemic lockdown" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/february-jobs-report-biden-b289b0fb-e7ce-4066-8407-871bffeaaa1a.html?stream=top&amp;utm_source=alert&amp;utm_medium=email&amp;utm_campaign=alerts_all" target="_self">uneven recovery</a> in employment, coupled with the unusual circumstances of a prolonged lockdown, served as the backdrop for hundreds of thousands of Americans to do just that.

Data: Center on Budget and Policy Priorities, based on estimates from U.S. Census Bureau's Household Pulse Surveys. Graphic: Will Chase/Axios

Nearly 1-in-5 renters are behind on rent, one year into the pandemic. 

Data from the U.S. Census Bureau show that states like Delaware and Michigan were hit hardest, with a quarter of their renters unable to catch up on payments, while other states hover between 10%–20%. 

Why it matters: As NPR points out, renters are getting evicted, with sometimes deadly consequences.

4. Americans are behind on rent

Some are getting evicted, with deadly consequences

Nearly 1-in-5 renters are behind on rent, one year into the pandemic. <ul><li>Data from the U.S. Census Bureau show that states like Delaware and Michigan were hit hardest, with a quarter of their renters unable to catch up on payments, while other states hover between 10%–20%. </li></ul>Why it matters: As NPR points out, renters are <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="getting evicted" data-vars-click-url="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3739576" data-vars-content-id="e652865a-aa4b-4fcd-9288-1f01b0e727ec" data-vars-headline="Americans are behind on rent" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3739576" target="_blank">getting evicted</a>, with sometimes <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="deadly consequences" data-vars-click-url="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3739576" data-vars-content-id="e652865a-aa4b-4fcd-9288-1f01b0e727ec" data-vars-headline="Americans are behind on rent" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3739576" target="_blank">deadly consequences</a>.

Capital

Axios Capital

Graphic: Sara Wise and Annelise Capossela/Axios

The coronavirus pandemic has profoundly changed the way America eats.

Why it matters: For the past year, a special-occasion meal has, more often than not, meant one cooked lovingly at home. Millions of Americans have lost the habit of eating out on a regular basis. 

Flashback: A milestone was reached in April 2015. That was the first month ever that Americans spent more money at restaurants and bars than they did at grocery stores. 

From that point forward, the restaurant industry only ever increased its lead over supermarkets — until the pandemic hit in March 2020. 

Over the past year, we've spent billions more at supermarkets than we have at restaurants, for obvious reasons. 

My thought bubble: We never stopped eating out — or ordering takeout. But for the past year the restaurant experience has generally been at one of two extremes: Either a congealing delivery in polystyrene, or a rare and memorable ultra-special occasion.

The high point of 2020, for me, was a dinner at Frenchette, in Manhattan. I went there quite regularly pre-pandemic, but it became much more special when it played host to one of the very few occasions that I was able to eat out with friends. 

By the numbers: In January 2021, the most recent month for which numbers are available, Americans spent $55 billion at restaurants, and $64 billion at grocery stores. 

17% of all restaurants have closed permanently or long-term as a result of the pandemic, per the National Restaurant Association, and the industry has lost 2.5 million jobs. 

The big picture: As the country feels safer eating out, we'll venture out more often for delicious food cooked by professionals. But that alone won't get us back to where we were.

At the peak of $65 billion per month, the vast majority of the restaurant meals consumed weren't fine dining, savored as something special. Often, they were valued more for convenience than for flavor. 

The bottom line: The future of the restaurant industry doesn't depend on where we eat the meals we remember for years. Rather, it depends on where we go for our forgettable, quotidian sustenance. 

5. The transformation of eating during the pandemic

Millions of Americans have lost the habit of eating out regularly.

The coronavirus pandemic has profoundly changed the way America eats.Why it matters: For the past year, a special-occasion meal has, more often than not, meant one cooked lovingly at home. Millions of Americans have lost the habit of eating out on a regular basis.

The massive drop in recorded flu cases and deaths this season so far is one silver lining from the deadly coronavirus pandemic.

The big question: Have the measures taken to slow the COVID-19 pandemic also managed to eradicate enough influenza variants that next year's season will be mild too?

What's happening: Mask wearing, social distancing, personal hygiene, travel restrictions plus increased flu vaccinations are widely held as being responsible for the 2020-2021 flu season being incredibly mild so far. But some scientists wonder if there will be longer term impacts. 

This could include the elimination of some of the many variants that normally circulate globally, making "the virological picture a lot simpler. That may be permanent, potentially," St. Jude hospital's Richard Webby told Nature.

On the other hand, the strongest variants are used to design the following season's flu shot and if they are hard to spot, they could make developing the vaccine tricker.  It could also open the door to a more virulent flu strain, like a swine flu, due to lack of viral competition, Webby added.

What they're saying: It's too early to tell if all of this might mean next season will be mild or not, says Amesh A. Adalja, senior scholar at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

"In terms of the human seasonal strains that are currently dominant, are there enough of them and are they finding people to infect to keep it going?"

"Or is it going to be something very constraining to them, even for the next season as social distancing becomes less common and as mask wearing becomes less common," Adalja tells Axios.

The big picture: Despite the current mild seasonal flu, development of a universal flu vaccine is key as influenza "still remains the biggest pandemic threat that we face," Adalja says. 

"There are so many different flu strains circulating in pigs, circulating in birds, that are poised to jump into humans that could develop the ability for sustained human-to-human transmission. I think we need to be adept at dealing with the flu, even if we get lucky with a couple of seasonal flu years that are light."

6. This flu season is mild — and that could have a long-term impact

Scientists wonder if some flu variants may die off or other longer term effects will happen.

The <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="massive drop" data-vars-click-url="https://www.axios.com/flu-season-coronavirus-deaths-945216ac-6b26-4c94-a61b-614897562520.html" data-vars-content-id="465eb590-eef2-436c-8164-2bf5864c0e1d" data-vars-headline="This flu season is mild — and that could have a long-term impact" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.axios.com/flu-season-coronavirus-deaths-945216ac-6b26-4c94-a61b-614897562520.html" target="_self">massive drop</a> in recorded flu cases and deaths this season so far is one silver lining from the deadly coronavirus pandemic.The big question: Have the measures taken to slow the COVID-19 pandemic also managed to eradicate enough influenza variants that next year&#x27;s season will be mild too?

Macro

Axios Macro

Sales of goods have recovered since their pandemic bust, but services lag

The pandemic caused a staggering split in the two slices of America's economy, in good and services.

Why it matters: The understandably sluggish rebound in spending on services has kept a lid on economic growth. America won't get back to full speed without it, given the services industry's outsized importance to the economy.

What's going on: America's spending on things — meaning everything from furniture to exercise equipment to yeast — has fully recovered from its hit from the pandemic. In fact, it has superseded spending in the before times.

The other side: But spending on things to do — meaning services and activities — is a different story. It's rebounded much more gradually, as Americans are slow to return to normal levels of eating out and traveling because of the virus. Other activities like concert-going are restricted.

Dash of hope: Economists are confident the service-spending rebound will happen, particularly with restrictions easing and mass vaccinations making people feel more comfortable venturing out.

7. Sluggish spending on activities is hampering the recovery

The pandemic understandably halted spending on services but the economy won't heal until that returns.

Retail

Public health

The pandemic caused a staggering split in the two slices of America&#x27;s economy, in good and services.Why it matters: The understandably sluggish rebound in spending on services has kept a lid on economic growth. America won&#x27;t get back to full speed without it, given the services industry&#x27;s outsized importance to the economy.

Media Trends

Axios Media Trends

Data: Common Sense Media; Graphic: Will Chase and Sarah Grillo/Axios

Kids' screen time has grown, as more activities have moved online due to the pandemic, per Common Sense Media data.

Specifically, time spent on YouTube and gaming platforms has significantly accelerated, according to findings from SuperAwesome, a kids tech company.

The big question: Now that screen time limits have been lifted, how hard will it be for parents to reestablish their rules once lockdowns are dropped?

8. Kids have been glued to screens during pandemic

Kids' screen time has grown, as more activities have moved online due to the pandemic.

Gaming

Kids&#x27; screen time has grown, as more activities have moved online due to the pandemic, per <a class="gtmContentClick" data-vars-link-text="Common Sense Media" data-vars-click-url="https://www.commonsensemedia.org/sites/default/files/uploads/research/2020_zero_to_eight_census_final_web.pdf https://www.axios.com/kids-screen-time-pandemic-112650a6-743c-4c15-b84a-7d86103262bb.html" data-vars-content-id="24c709ab-c57e-4a1c-b60d-34dc2b8424d3" data-vars-headline="Kids have been glued to screens during pandemic" data-vars-event-category="story" data-vars-sub-category="story" data-vars-item="in_content_link" href="https://www.commonsensemedia.org/sites/default/files/uploads/research/2020_zero_to_eight_census_final_web.pdf https://www.axios.com/kids-screen-time-pandemic-112650a6-743c-4c15-b84a-7d86103262bb.html" target="_self">Common Sense Media</a> data.