Jul 26, 2020 - Politics & Policy

Nate Silver: "I do not buy that Trump's fate is sealed"

FiveThirtyEight founder Nate Silver said on ABC's "This Week" that while President Trump's reelection bid is "clearly in trouble" due to his dismal coronavirus approval ratings and polling in swing states, he does not believe the president's "fate is sealed."

Why it matters: There are 100 days until the election and the warning signs are flashing bright red for Trump. Eight in 10 Americans said in an AP-NORC poll released Sunday that the country is heading in the wrong direction — more than at any other point during Trump's presidency.

The big picture: That same poll found that just 32% support Trump's handling of the coronavirus pandemic, including only 68% of Republicans. But as Silver points out, a major breakthrough in the vaccine race or a sudden economic recovery could change the situation.

What he's saying: "We found historically that when there are lots of major news events and economic disruptions, an election becomes harder to predict," Silver said.

  • "So while he's clearly in trouble, I do not buy that Trump's fate is sealed. A lot could change in the next 100 days — things could get worse, still, for the president.
  • "But a turnaround in the COVID situation by the fall could make the election more competitive."

Go deeper: The blue wave threatening to crush Trump's re-election keeps growing

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