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Data: Historical changes in House seats from the American Presidency Project, approval ratings from FiveThirtyEight, and views of the economy from AGC Research LLC. Chart: Harry Stevens/Axios

Here's why it's so hard to predict whether Republicans will actually lose the House in November: It depends whether the election turns on President Trump's low approval ratings or the booming economy.

Between the lines: As this interactive graphic shows, the party in power tends to do well in the House during midterm elections when voters are happy with the economy, but it does poorly when the president's approval rating is low. There's no recent precedent in which the economy is doing well but the president's approval rating is underwater.

What they're saying: I asked Darrell West of the Brookings Institution his thoughts on these trends:

  • “Generally, it’s been 'the economy, stupid,' that’s been the major issue. But this year it could be, 'It’s Trump, stupid.' Because Trump just dominates everything. He dominates news coverage, he dominates social media activities. He’s a very inviting target for Democrats.”
  • “Generally, there’s a strong tie between the state of the economy and presidential approval ratings, but it's not true in regard to Trump because many people simply don’t like him personally."

The bottom line: Anyone who talks about the election as if it's only about Trump, or only about the economy, is only telling you half the story. We won't really know what's going to happen with the House until we know which half matters the most to the voters.

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Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 7 p.m. ET: 10,940,071 — Total deaths: 519,852 — Total recoveries — 5,705,326Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 7 p.m. ET: 2,732,639 — Total deaths: 128,651 — Total recoveries: 781,970 — Total tested: 33,462,181Map.
  3. Public health: The states where face coverings are mandatory Regeneron stops trial after drug fails to help patientsWhat we know about the coronavirus immune response.
  4. Business: Top business leaders urge the White House to develop mandatory mask guidelines.
  5. Politics: Herman Cain hospitalized for COVID-19 after attending Trump Tulsa rally — Biden downplays jobs number, rebukes Trump for ignoring health crisis.
  6. States: Texas mandates face masks in public spaces Florida reports more than 10,000 new coronavirus cases.

Ousted former U.S. attorney for SDNY to testify before House Judiciary Committee

Berman in October 2019 in New York City. Photo: Johannes Eisele/AFP via Getty Images

Geoffrey Berman, the former U.S. attorney for the Southern District of New York, is scheduled to testify to the House Judiciary Committee next week on the circumstances of his forced resignation, Politico reports, citing a congressional aide.

Why it matters: As the top federal prosecutor in Manhattan, Berman oversaw high-profile cases that worried and angered President Trump and his inner circle, including an investigation into his personal lawyer Rudy Giuliani. His removal has added to allegations by Democrats that Attorney General Bill Barr has politicized the Justice Department under President Trump.

Stimulus outlook takes a hit even as coronavirus cases skyrocket

Data: Bureau of Labor Statistics; Chart: Axios Visuals

The pandemic is getting worse, and the question is whether the economic recovery will go with it.

Why it matters: America adding 7.5 million jobs over the last two months pales in comparison to 20+ million lost over the two months prior.