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Photo: Samuel Corum/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images

After a long day of meetings and tweets, a rough sketch of a gun agenda has emerged from President Trump. And in Congress the tragically-predictable storyline that plays out after a mass shooting may about to be shaken up.

What we're watching: Senate staff and observers say next week's caucus lunches, where leadership takes the temperature of members, are going to be key. And if there is action on a gun bill, it's going to be a political shift largely thanks to the high school kids who have spoken up about gun violence.

"It's hard to imagine this doesn't move some votes.
— A well-wired former Senate aide

Trump's pitches:

  1. Tightening background checks "with an emphasis on Mental Health."
  2. Banning bump stocks, which were used in Las Vegas and dramatically speed up the rate of fire for semi-automatic rifles.
  3. Raising the age to buy some guns from 18 to 21. The law is currently 18 for long rifles, and 21 for handguns.
  4. Allowing concealed carry permits for some teachers, which he described as those who are "highly adept people people that understand weaponry..." Trump said such teachers should get a "little bit of a bonus" for this, and proposed training them with federal funds. [Go deeper]
  5. Trump does not favor active shooter drills, saying he wouldn't want to subject his son Baron to such drills. He instead wants to harden schools from attack.

The leading legislative contender in the Senate is a bipartisan bill sponsored by Majority Whip John Cornyn and Sen. Chris Murphy, which would improve reporting under the existing background check system and reporting of domestic violence records.

  • "Cornyn bill should pass," a senior GOP aide told me. "No idea on whether McConnell will give us floor time or not. May be a [unanimous consent] exercise."
  • McConnell himself is a cosponsor of the bill.
  • "One of the factors for consideration will be where POTUS stands on various ideas. The Senate Majority Leader will need that input, too," a second senior GOP Senate aide said.

Yes, but: It's really hard to see a path forward for the bill to become law, even if it passes the Senate. The House has already passed it, but paired with a concealed carry provision that Democrats would never vote for. Separating the two endangers conservative House support.

The bottom line on the challenges from former Senate aide: “The pressure is not getting less, [but] this issue and immigration are the two really hardest things to get done, because they get everybody fired up and dug into their corners. We haven’t shown the ability to get those kinds of things done recently."

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Go deeper

3 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Senate Democrats target billionaires

Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios

After failing to get a deal on other planned tax increases, key Senate Democrats are pivoting to a billionaires' income tax to pay for President Biden's social spending.

The big picture: No advanced economy has attempted anything similar on such a scale.

Anti-abortion activists' Supreme Court dreams are coming true

Photo illustration: Annelise Capossela. Photos: Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

This is the moment the conservative legal movement has been building toward for decades: The solidly conservative Supreme Court is about to hear two major abortion cases within a month of each other.

Why it matters: All of this is likely to end with significant new restrictions on abortion and a clear path for Republican-led states to win the next big abortion cases, too — the culmination of a long and bitter fight for control of the judiciary.

Felix Salmon, author of Capital
8 hours ago - Economy & Business

Trump's volatile return to the stock market

Expand chart
Data: YCharts; Chart: Axios Visuals 

Donald Trump this week became both a meme stock and a social-media entrepreneur at the same time, by announcing that a new company called Trump Media & Technology Group was going to merge with an existing company listed on the stock market.

Why it matters: The medium-term promise of Trump's media company is that it will replace Twitter for anybody wanting to keep track of Trump's messages. The short-term promise is that it can be a hot new speculative vehicle for people wanting to get rich quick in the stock market.

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