Illustration: Lazaro Gamio/Axios

U.S. manufacturers and small businesses have been hit hard by the trade war, but recent data shows that China is really suffering.

Driving the news: China's total exports fell for the 12th straight month in November, dropping 1.1% from a year ago, and exports to the U.S. have fallen more than 20%, according to China’s customs administration.

  • Economists had expected shipments to rise 1%, as retailers and companies stock up for Christmas, per Reuters.

What's happening: The U.S. trade deficit declined 7.6% in October to $47.2 billion, the smallest since May 2018, as both imports and exports of goods fell. It was the second straight month the trade deficit has fallen and the largest drop since January.

  • The goods trade deficit — a key benchmark of the Trump administration — is at its lowest since September 2017.
  • China’s trade surplus fell to $38.73 billion in November, about $8 billion below what it was expected to be.

By the numbers:

  • 27.4% drop in the goods trade deficit in October.
  • 23.1% year-over-year decline of U.S. imports from China.
  • 2.8% year-over-year decline in U.S. exports to China.

What they're saying: "There’s little reason for the Trump administration to back away from tariffs as the pressure on China is working," analysts from S&P Global Market Intelligence note.

But, but, but: The goods trade deficit with the EU increased 20% during the month, with U.S. imports from the EU surging to a record high, so American business owners aren't necessarily reaping the benefits.

  • The Commerce Department also reported that factory orders increased 0.3% in October, but shipments were unchanged and unfilled orders were flat, indicating the recession in the U.S. manufacturing sector could continue for some time, Reuters notes.

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Felix Salmon, author of Capital
Sep 17, 2020 - Economy & Business

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All significant merger-and-acquisition transactions require regulatory approval — and a new regulator just got to town.

Why it matters: We're in a tit-for-tat trade war, which means that any action the U.S. takes against China is going to be reciprocated by a similar action taken by China against America. That includes regulatory actions.

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  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 1:30 p.m. ET: 31,120,980 — Total deaths: 961,656— Total recoveries: 21,287,328Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 1:30 p.m. ET: 6,819,651 — Total deaths: 199,606 — Total recoveries: 2,590,671 — Total tests: 95,108,559Map.
  3. Health: CDC says it mistakenly published guidance about COVID-19 spreading through air.
  4. Politics: House Democrats file legislation to fund government through Dec. 11.
  5. Business: Unemployment concerns are growing.
  6. World: "The Wake-Up Call" warns the West about the consequences of mishandling a pandemic.

House Democrats file legislation to fund government through Dec. 11

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.). Photo: Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images

House Democrats on Monday released their proposal for short-term legislation to fund the government through December 11.

Why it matters: This is Congress' chief legislative focus before the election. They must pass a continuing resolution (CR) before midnight on Oct. 1 to avoid a government shutdown — something both Hill leaders and the White House have claimed is off the table.