Dec 2, 2019

A 2019 U.S.-China trade war deal is looking unlikely

Dion Rabouin, author of Markets

Illustration: Rebecca Zisser/Axios

The financially focused arm of China's Global Times newspaper this weekend posted a number of new details on Twitter about how Chinese negotiators are positioned in trade discussions.

What they're saying, per The Business Source's Twitter feed: A former Chinese vice minister of commerce says he expects the "phase one" trade deal will be signed before Chinese New Year, which begins Jan. 25, but that "[r]olling back tariffs levied by the U.S. is a must."

  • 22 of 25 "experts" surveyed say the possibility of reaching a trade deal is "greater than 50 percent." However, just "nine out of 25 experts surveyed said that a deal could be reached before the New Year, while seven think the deal will come after the New Year."
  • Tweets also quoted "experts" who said the "longer the #tradetalks drag on, the more difficult it gets to reach a phase one deal given the increasingly out-of-control anti-China movement in Washington."

Why it matters: Global Times is affiliated with the Chinese Communist Party and is therefore considered to have a direct line to top policymakers and reflect the party's thinking.

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