Aug 12, 2017

The Senate map is trouble for Democrats in 2018

With President Trump's base support beginning to erode and a Republican-held Congress failing to achieve any of its chief policy aims, the stage seems set for a Democratic takeover of the legislative branch in 2018. But Democrats are staring down one huge obstacle: the Senate map.

Expand chart
Data: Dave Leip's Election Atlas, U.S. Senate; Chart: Andrew Witherspoon / Axios

The problem: 25 Senate seats currently held by Democrats or independents caucusing with them are up for election in 2018 — more than half of the Democratic caucus. Even more significantly, 10 of those seats are in states that voted for Trump in 2016. Conversely, just eight Republican seats are up for election with only one in a state that went for Hillary Clinton.

Think of it this way: 538 presented a scenario that should terrify Democrats: it took Iraq, Katrina, the start of the Great Recession and rock bottom approval ratings for George W Bush for the Dems to grab a 60-seat Senate supermajority in 2008. But 30 states went for Trump in 2016, meaning the GOP would just need to nab both senators from those states in order to attain a supermajority — not unthinkable in today's hyperpartisan, straight-ticket environment.

It's not over — yet: A RealClearPolitics analysis showed that — while 2018 is certainly bad for Democrats — next year's map isn't historically bad. Based on trends, Democrats are likely to lose a few seats, but that might put them in a better spot with a more favorable map and a presidential race in 2020. It's also worth noting that Democrats managed to pick up two seats, in Missouri and Indiana, with the same map in 2012.

Three things in Democrats' favor:

  • A sense of where things went wrong: The Trump era has led Democrats, especially those hanging on in midwestern states, to recalibrate their priorities. A Politico profile from earlier this year showed how Wisconsin Sen. Tammy Baldwin is reaching out to dairy farmers by decrying almond milk and Ohio Sen. Sherrod Brown has made the opioid crisis a focal point of his tenure.
  • A lack (right now) of high-profile challengers: Of those 10 Democrats up for reelection in states that Trump won, only two — West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin and Pennsylvania Sen. Bob Casey — have declared opponents who have previously held federal office.
  • Trump's continuing unpopularity: Trump's approval ratings among all voters remain at historically low levels for a modern president, and Axios reported over the weekend that Trump is also seeing his GOP base erode in key swing states.

Go deeper

CDC: Coronavirus antibodies could give "short-term immunity," but more data is needed

CDC Director Robert Redfield briefs reporters on April 8. Photo: Mandel Ngan/AFP via Getty Images

Coronavirus antibody tests are still relatively unreliable, and scientists still aren't sure whether people who get the virus are immune to getting it again, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention cautioned on Tuesday.

What they're saying: The agency explicitly warned against using antibody tests to determine whether someone should return to work or to group people within schools or prisons.

Trump accuses Twitter of interfering in 2020 election

President Trump speaks to the press as he departs the White House in Washington, D.C., on Thursday. Photo: Mandel Ngan/Getty Images

President Trump responded via tweets Tuesday evening to Twitter fact-checking him for the first time on his earlier unsubstantiated posts claiming mail-in ballots in November's election would be fraudulent.

What he's saying: "Twitter is now interfering in the 2020 Presidential Election.They are saying my statement on Mail-In Ballots, which will lead to massive corruption and fraud, is incorrect, based on fact-checking by Fake News CNN and the Amazon Washington Post," the president tweeted. "Twitter is completely stifling FREE SPEECH, and I, as President, will not allow it to happen!"

Coronavirus dashboard

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

  1. Global: Total confirmed cases as of 8:30 p.m. ET: 5,584,091 — Total deaths: 349,894 — Total recoveries — 2,284,242Map.
  2. U.S.: Total confirmed cases as of 8:30 p.m. ET: 1,680,301 — Total deaths: 98,875 — Total recoveries: 384,902 — Total tested: 14,907,041Map.
  3. Federal response: DOJ investigates meatpacking industry over soaring beef pricesMike Pence's press secretary returns to work.
  4. Congress: House Republicans to sue Nancy Pelosi in effort to block proxy voting.
  5. Business: How the new workplace could leave parents behind.
  6. Tech: Twitter fact-checks Trump's tweets about mail-in voting for first timeGoogle to open offices July 6 for 10% of workers.
  7. Public health: CDC releases guidance on when you can be around others after contracting the coronavirus.
  8. What should I do? When you can be around others after contracting the coronavirus — Traveling, asthma, dishes, disinfectants and being contagiousMasks, lending books and self-isolatingExercise, laundry, what counts as soap — Pets, moving and personal healthAnswers about the virus from Axios expertsWhat to know about social distancingHow to minimize your risk.
  9. Other resources: CDC on how to avoid the virus, what to do if you get it, the right mask to wear.

Subscribe to Mike Allen's Axios AM to follow our coronavirus coverage each morning from your inbox.

Updated 44 mins ago - Politics & Policy