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Trump's "dangerously low" support among his base

Automated phone polling by the rising GOP public-affairs firm Firehouse Strategies, along with the data analytics team at 0ptimus, finds Trump's base shrinking among likely midterm voters in the key swing states of Florida, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Ohio (2,901 interviews).

Firehouse Strategies

Partner Alex Conant tells me:

  • "Our data shows Trump losing support inside the Republican Party and a noticeable drop in his perceived honesty."
  • "Just 6 months in office, Trump is getting into dangerously low territory in key swing states. Trump's base of support has shrunk from 35.3% of voters who have a 'strongly favorable' view of him in April to only 28.6%."
  • "Notably, much of that erosion is among Republicans: Strongly favorable views among GOP voters dropped from 54.1% to 44.9%, while unfavorable views increased from 20.5% to 27.9%."
  • Why it matters: "Trump cannot take continued GOP support for granted in swing states."

See the memo.

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Where Trump's steel and aluminum trade war will hit first

Note: Includes only products under the "Iron & Steel & Ferroalloy" and "Alumina & Aluminum & Processing" NAICS commodity classifications. Data: Census Bureau; Chart: Chris Canipe and Lazaro Gamio / Axios

The Trump administration has begun imposing tariffs on imports of steel and aluminum, but several countries are exempted temporarily until May 1, as shown in the chart above. The administration may still apply quotas on exempted countries to prevent a flood of foreign steel and aluminum in the U.S. market, per the White House.

Why it matters: After railroading past a number of his advisors, Trump announced the tariffs on imports of steel (at 25%) and aluminum (at 10%) earlier this month, citing national security concerns. But with the exemption noted above, the tariffs won't carry major bite, at least to start.

Alexi McCammond 9 hours ago
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Trump signs spending bill despite veto threat

Photo: Mark Wilson/Getty Images

President Trump announced that he has signed the $1.3 trillion spending bill that passed Congress last night "as a matter of national security," citing the bill's increase in defense spending, even though he threatened to veto earlier today. "My highest duty is to keep America safe," Trump said. He said he's disappointed in most of the bill.

Key quote: "I will never sign another bill like this again. I'm not going to do it again. Nobody read it. It's only hours old."