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Rep. Hoyer: 90% chance Dems win House in 2018

Speaking to Mike Allen at an Axios News Shapers event this morning, Maryland Rep. Steny Hoyer said it was "90% likely" that the Democrats will win the House majority in 2018, and that he expects to pick up about 30+ seats.

Why it matters: There are at least 48 seats up for grabs in 2018, more than two-thirds of which are currently held by Republicans. Hoyer said that he's seeing two phenomena that lead him to believe the Democrats will win the majority.

  • First, there are "a lot of great candidates in a lot of districts." Not all of the races are competitive, but a large number are.
  • And second, an especially high number of GOP retirements and an overall lack of enthusiasm among Republican voters. "It wasn’t that Trump’s people voted for Doug Jones," Hoyer said. "It’s just that they didn’t turn out. I think there will be a depressed turnout in midterms because they’re not energized."
Axios event