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Trump at last year's State of the Union address. Photo: Toni L. Sandys/The Washington Post via Getty Images

President Trump will address the nation Tuesday night in the same room Democrats voted to impeach him less than two months ago, and a day before he is expected to be acquitted in the Senate.

Flashback: 21 years ago, former President Bill Clinton found himself in the same situation, addressing a country in the midst of a bitter impeachment battle. Clinton avoided using the I-word in his 78-minute speech, sticking with his commitment to focus on doing the work of a president, despite members' attempts to remove him from office.

What we're watching: The big question is whether Trump follows Clinton’s lead, and not only focuses on his forthcoming agenda and recent accomplishments — like passing USMCA and signing "phase one" of the U.S.-China trade deal — but also fights the urge to take a premature victory lap on surviving impeachment.

What they're saying: Not one Republican senator Axios spoke with on Monday said they think Trump should bring up impeachment.

  • Sen. Mike Braun of Indiana: "I think we've been talking about it for so long, and I think he needs to stick with the agenda. And he'll do quite well. ... I'd say health care is number one."
  • Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana: "I think that our country is dying for bipartisanship. And so, if he can stress those things that we can all agree upon: How do we lower the cost of health care? How do we do an infrastructure package? ... I think those are all things that he'd be wise to speak to."
  • Sen. Marco Rubio of Florida: "I wouldn’t [bring up impeachment]. ... We haven't taken the vote yet and I think he has a lot of positive things to talk about. ... I just think there's no way you talk about impeachment and that not be the takeaway."

Our thought bubble: Trump has a lot of fodder to boast about tonight — from taking out ISIS leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and Iranian general Qassem Soleimani to rolling out his Middle East peace deal.

  • But some Hill Republicans and administration officials tell Axios they don’t think Trump can help himself, and will resort to attacking Democrats on impeachment, like he has on the campaign trail and on Twitter.

What to watch: Administration officials say Trump will spend a decent portion of his address spotlighting his special guests in the audience.

  • Last year, he invited famous astronaut Buzz Aldrin, brain cancer patient Grace Eline, and Alice Johnson, a woman to whom he had recently granted clemency, among others.

Go deeper: Jamal Khashoggi's fiancée to attend State of the Union

Go deeper

Biden says presidency "will be determined" by outcome of spending plans

President Biden walks with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi after addressing the House Democratic caucus on Thursday. Photo: Jim Watson/AFP via Getty Images

President Biden told the House Democratic caucus Thursday "my presidency will be determined" by the votes he wants in the next week on his $1.75 trillion social safety net expansion and $1.2 trillion infrastructure package.

Driving the news: Biden made the comment, according to a source in the room, as he tried to rally support for the $1.75 trillion package. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi acted immediately, calling for a vote on the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill later in the day.

Ben Geman, author of Generate
40 mins ago - Energy & Environment

China declines to speed emissions cuts in new UN pledge

A view of the skyscrapers in the haze in Shanghai, China, in December 2020. Photo: Feature China/Barcroft Media via Getty Images

Chinese leaders are sticking with a prior target to bring the country's carbon emissions to a peak before 2030, according to documents filed with the United Nations Thursday under the Paris climate agreement.

Why it matters: The new documents come just days ahead of the UN climate summit (COP26) in Glasgow. China is by far the world's largest greenhouse gas emitter, and its emissions path is key to whether the temperature-limiting goals of the Paris agreement can remain within reach.

Updated 2 hours ago - Politics & Policy

Biden lays out $1.75 trillion "framework" before Europe departure

President Biden in Kearny, N.J., on Oct. 25. Photo: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

President Biden announced Thursday a "framework" for $1.75 trillion in social program and climate change spending after failing in prior efforts to win over his fellow Democrats on a much broader and costlier package.

Why it matters: Biden is gambling that by proclaiming the broad contours of the proposal, which he immediately began selling in a meeting with House Democrats before jetting off to Europe, progressives will vote for his $1.2 trillion infrastructure plan if and when House Speaker Nancy Pelosi brings it to the floor.