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Photo: Ken Cedeno/Pool/Getty Images

The Cook Political Report on Wednesday updated its forecast for South Carolina's Senate race, moving it from "lean Republican" to "toss up."

Why it matters: Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham's Democratic challenger, Jaime Harrison, has been able to out-raise the sitting senator — a key ally of President Trump — and tighten the race, which could be pivotal in deciding control of the Senate.

  • Recent polling shows Harrison tied with Graham, who won his last race by 10 points.
  • Harrison has raised an astonishing amount of money — $14 million during last quarter alone — and has been able to blanket the airwaves with advertisting, leaving Graham scrambling to catch up.

The state of play: Graham, as chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, will take a front-and-center role in the Supreme Court confirmation hearings for Amy Coney Barrett, which could help to move the dial for him among conservatives in the weeks ahead.

Flashback: In April, Cook moved the race from "solid Republican" to "lean Republican."

The bottom line, via Cook's Jessica Taylor: "Ultimately, this race has earned a more competitive rating — underscoring just how fast the GOP majority is slipping away if they have to defend turf like this, and also how much Trump’s numbers have fallen across the board."

Go deeper

Top Republicans want Trump done — forevermore

President Trump faces reporters as he walks toward Marine One yesterday. Photo: Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Top Republicans want to bury President Trump, for good. But they are divided whether to do it with one quick kill via impeachment, or let him slowly fade away.

  • A House impeachment vote, which would make Trump the first president to be impeached twice, is expected in mid-afternoon.

The big picture: Sources tell Axios Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell would be more likely than not to vote to convict Trump — a green light for other Republican senators to follow.

Mike Allen, author of AM
20 mins ago - Politics & Policy

Ohio upset's '22 clues

Shontel Brown campaigns with Rep. James Clyburn in Cleveland on July 31. Photo: Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images

An upset in Ohio on Tuesday night is giving moderate, Biden-aligned Democrats momentum vs. the party's vocal left ahead of next year's midterms.

Driving the news: In a special primary for U.S. House in the Cleveland area, Cuyahoga County Council member Shontel Brown pulled out a surprise victory for the Democratic establishment in Cleveland.

1 hour ago - Health

New York City revives vaccine passports

Illustration: Aïda Amer/Axios

New York City yesterday became the first city in the U.S. to require proof of coronavirus vaccination for indoor dining and other leisure activities, a measure popular among public health experts but previously squashed by political backlash to "vaccine passports."

Why it matters: Employers and now local governments are starting to ensure that remaining unvaccinated will have consequences for everyday life, testing the resolve of those who say nothing could persuade them to get a shot.