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Photos: Nathan Ouellette/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images; Tom Williams/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) is tied 48%-48% with Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison in the South Carolina Senate race, according to a Quinnipiac poll out Wednesday.

Why it matters: The race could be pivotal in deciding which party controls the Senate. Harrison was once thought to be a long shot against Graham, who won his last Senate race by a 10-point margin.

  • "There hasn't been a Democrat elected to the Senate from South Carolina since 1998. Outspent and labeled by critics as an apologist for President Trump, Lindsey Graham is facing the fight of his political life," said Quinnipiac University polling analyst Tim Malloy in a news release.

By the numbers: Both candidates received 48% support from 1,123 likely South Carolina voters — unchanged from a Quinnipiac poll earlier this month.

  • 95% of voters who said they support a candidate said their minds have been made up about their pick, while another 4% said their minds could still be changed.
  • In general, 49% of likely voters said they want Republicans to win control of the U.S. Senate, while 44% said the same for Democrats.

Worth noting: President Trump's support in the state has declined since the Quinnipiac poll two weeks ago. The president received 48% support among likely voters (down from 51%), while former Vice President Joe Biden received 47% support (up from 45%) — a statistical tie.

Methodology: The poll surveyed 1,123 likely South Carolina voters September 23–27. It has a margin of error of ±2.9 percentage points.

Go deeper

Updated Jan 6, 2021 - Politics & Policy

Schumer declares Democratic majority in the Senate

Photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images

Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) declared on Wednesday that Democrats have gained control of the Senate, calling it a "brand new day" in Washington.

The state of play: The AP projected that Rev. Raphael Warnock has defeated Sen. Kelly Loeffler (R). Democrat Jon Ossoff is currently leading in the race against former Sen. David Perdue (R), but the contest is still too close to call.

McConnell: "Our democracy would enter a death spiral" if Congress overturned election

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) on Wednesday rebuked his Republican colleagues' efforts to block the certification of the Electoral College, saying in an emotional speech on the Senate floor that overturning the results of the election "would damage our republic forever."

Why it matters: In a complete break from President Trump and other Republicans, McConnell denounced "sweeping conspiracy theories" about widespread election fraud and said he "will not pretend" voting to overturn the election would be a "harmless protest gesture."

Focus group: Former Trump voters say he should never hold office again

Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios

"Relief" is the top emotion some swing voters who used to support Donald Trump say they felt as they watched President Biden's swearing-in, followed by "hope."

Why it matters: For voters on the bubble between parties, this moment is less about excitement for Biden or liberal politics than exhaustion and disgust with Trump and a craving for national healing. Most said Trump should be prohibited from ever holding office again.