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Men wait at dawn to be the first in line to fill out unemployment forms in rural Imperial County, California, which has been hard-hit by the COVID-19 pandemic. Photo: Mario Tama/Getty Images.

Coronavirus cases in rural communities have now surpassed the number of COVID-19 infections in big cities, and rural economies will have a harder time recovering from a second shutdown.

Why it matters: Without additional federal relief for rural regions, "people and businesses will not have enough confidence to return to their jobs and daily activities," Center for American Progress senior economist Olugbenga Ajilore argues in an analysis out on Monday. "The result will be a prolonged, deep recession."

What's happened: The $1,200 direct payments to households as part of the CARES Act, along with expanded unemployment insurance, revived spending and business revenues in April and May. Small businesses began to shut down again in late June as COVID-19 cases spiked, per CAP's analysis.

  • In southern rural communities characterized by large Black populations, household expenditures rebounded in May as southern states such as Georgia and South Carolina aggressively reopened. But that trend reversed in June with steep drops in the number of businesses and revenue.
  • Midwestern rural communities characterized by blue-collar jobs saw an even steeper drop in household spending, although it has since plateaued. Small businesses are struggling to stay open.
  • Western rural communities followed a similar pattern, with the number of open merchants and revenue both plummeting at the end of June as household spending plateaued.
Expand chart
Reproduced from Center for American Progress; Chart: Axios Visuals

Even rural areas with higher pre-pandemic economic success have been hit hard, including "Graying America" communities with large aging populations in the West, as well as the Northeast and Florida (see above).

The big picture: Rural America has a high-risk population and fewer safety-net programs for people who get sick. And many rural communities are still struggling to recover from the Great Recession.

The bottom line: Rural small businesses that weathered the initial coronavirus closures in the spring may not survive a second lockdown as cases spike.

Go deeper

3. Minority-led SMBs turn to digital tools because of lack of funding

Small businesses owned by minorities were more likely to make the most out of digital tools during COVID-19, according to the Digitally Driven study.

Why it’s important: These minority-owned businesses that quickly adapted to the new normal and have a higher comfort level with digital tools have become more focused on long-term business goals through the pandemic.

Rep. Rice demands Cuomo resign after third woman accuses him of misconduct

New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo during a February news conference in New York City. Photo: Seth Wenig/POOL/AFP via Getty Images

Rep. Kathleen Rice (D-N.Y.) on Monday evening called for New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) to resign, after a third woman accused him of inappropriate behavior.

Driving the news: Anna Ruch told the New York Times Monday that Cuomo asked to kiss her at a New York City wedding reception in September 2019.

Scoop: Inside the GOP's plan to retake the House

House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy. Photo: Elijah Nouvelage/Bloomberg via Getty Images

House Republicans will reclaim their majority in 2022 by offering candidates who are women, minorities or veterans, a memo obtained by Axios says.

Why it matters: The document, drafted by a super PAC blessed by House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy, names top Democrats to target — Jared Golden of Maine, Matt Cartwright of Pennsylvania and Ron Kind of Wisconsin — and the type of Republican candidates to beat them.