Real estate experts' hot Austin takes of 2026
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A for-sale sign at an Austin home. Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty Images
We asked experts to give us their crystal ball predictions for Austin's housing market in 2026.
Why it matters: The fate of the housing market is tied to factors both national (like interest rates) and local (the job market) — and homeownership remains part of the American dream.
The big picture: The median price for homes within the Austin city limits in November, the most recent data available, was $565,000, down 1.5% from November 2024. That's according to the latest from Unlock MLS, a real estate data site operated by the Austin Board of Realtors.
- In greater Austin, the median price for homes sold in November was $430,000, down 1.1% from November 2024.
What they're saying: "We're approaching 2026 with cautious optimism while watching the tech industry to see when they'll begin hiring again," Austin real estate broker Eric Bramlett tells Axios.
- "Job anxiety is very real and very much affects the housing market. When you're worried about your job, you don't make big purchases," he observes.
State of play: The unemployment rate in greater Austin was 3.8% in September, per the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Between the lines: Now several years on from the pandemic housing boom, "sellers are getting realistic" about pricing, Väike O'Grady, a research adviser at Unlock MLS, tells Axios.
- She says she expects some softening in home prices — as much as 5% in the first half of the year — especially as more listings hit the market.
- "Austin is still a place people want to work and live," she says. "You're seeing a huge resizing of the airport and new flights coming in — that's going to be a factor in job growth numbers, as well as the Samsung operational plant (in Taylor)."
The bottom line: Optimistic that job growth will lead to opportunities in the housing market, "the end of 2026 might be better than first half of 2026," O'Grady says.