Austin home values decline
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A greater portion of Austin homes lost value over the past year than in almost any other major U.S. metro, a recent Zillow analysis shows.
Why it matters: It's a major reversal in a market that spent the pandemic shattering price records. Still, most homeowners "have plenty to feel good about," the real estate site reports.
What they're saying: "While fluctuations in home values can distress watchful owners, the vast majority are sitting on large equity gains that they can take advantage of when they sell," Zillow chief economist Mischa Fisher tells Axios.
By the numbers: 89.5% of metro Austin homes lost value over the past year — the highest percentage since at least 2012 — and second only to Denver (90.6%).
Stunning stat: 12.6% of Austin homes have a list price that's lower than their last sale price.
- In 2019, by contrast, only 1.9% of Austin homes were selling below their last sale price.
Zoom in: Austin area homes have lost, on average, 20.5% of their value since the peak of the pandemic — more than any other major U.S. metro, per the report.
Yes, but: The downturn in Austin values is largely a function of the big run-up during the pandemic, Vaike O'Grady, a research adviser at Unlock MLS, a data site operated by the Austin Board of Realtors, tells Axios.
- "When you see something run up that quickly, you'll see it settle out," she says. "It's uncomfortable to see that, but it's a normalization."
- Plus, she said, the more recent dips have been in a narrow band. In October 2023, the median Austin home value was $444,900; this past October, it was $439,000.
Between the lines: "The majority of people (in Austin) are not going to see that swing" in their home values, O'Grady says, since they bought before the pandemic, not during or after it.
Zoom out: Other Texas cities aren't far behind Austin, with most homes in Dallas (86.7%), San Antonio (86.3%) and Houston (79.6%) losing value in the past year.
- Nationally, 53% of homes have lost value in the past year.
Context: The state's downturn reflects a regional trend across the West and South, where swelling inventory and growing climate risks have cooled once white-hot markets.
The big picture: It's a homebuyer's market right now, if you can afford it. Nationwide, sellers now outnumber buyers by a record 37%, Redfin estimates.