May 20, 2024
🍪 Happy Monday! We hope your last week before recess is a treat.
🎼 Today's last tune is from Brian Hendricks at Nokia: "Thank You" by Dido.
1 big thing: Hill's next-level China EV push
Illustration: Sarah Grillo/Axios
Lawmakers are already talking about further action to keep Chinese EVs out of the U.S. after the Biden administration's tariff hike last week, Nick writes.
Why it matters: Bipartisan anti-China trade policy is shaping the energy transition. This conversation on the Hill is going to stay alive no matter who's in the White House next year.
Driving the news: Lawmakers from both parties told Nick they may try to build on the administration's new 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs to cut off possible imports from Mexico.
- "There's not much economically good that Joe Biden has done, but continuing the tariff policy, I think, is good, and we're gonna have to do more," Sen. Josh Hawley told Nick.
Context: Chinese-made EVs currently have tiny U.S. market share, but companies like BYD could move manufacturing to Mexico or elsewhere to get into the U.S. market, as our colleague Ben Geman pointed out last week.
- U.S. trade representative Katherine Tai said that issue will require a "separate pathway."
Zoom in: Hawley introduced a bill this year that would try to close that workaround by placing tariffs on all EV manufacturers with close ties to China no matter where their operations are located.
- "We need to close the back door so that they don't evade these tariffs," he said. "I mean, they're not stupid. They and every other manufacturer is going to try to find ways to circumvent any of the tariffs."
- Rep. Dan Kildee told Nick he sees parallels to last year's year's debate about solar circumvention.
- "It really is a question of balance," Kildee said.
Former President Trump would likely continue with a similar set of tariffs, and possibly expand them to cover Mexico, if he's elected.
- With Biden moving in that direction, Hawley sees possibilities on the Hill, too, given the pro-tariff outlook of swing-state Senate Democrats up for re-election.
- One of those Dems, Sen. Bob Casey, told Nick that Congress should "take any step possible to prevent China from undermining our markets."
Yes, but: Other Democrats have mixed views about punishing "clean" industries with deep roots in China.
- There are also lingering questions about how Biden's latest move could impact EV supply chains, since it includes EV batteries and component minerals.
- "Our supply chains won't materialize overnight," Rep. Scott Peters told Nick. "And there's a benefit to some competition [from Chinese EVs]."
Our thought bubble: The EV levies are preemptive, but the larger movement could slow progress in cutting greenhouse gas emissions.
2. Farm bill week approaches
Illustration: Gabriella Turrisi/Axios
Prep for a high-stakes farm bill markup in the House this week, Jael writes.
Why it matters: IRA money is on the chopping block — creating a key obstacle to getting the ag policy bill done this Congress.
Driving the news: The House Agriculture Committee is expected to mark up the bill Thursday, as previously announced.
- The GOP-led bill dropped last week with proposed changes to IRA "climate smart" ag money that would move funds into broader farm and forest conservation programs.
- As we told you last week, this appears to be a non-starter with Dems, along with GOP language related to food stamps.
- We're still awaiting formal notice of the markup, though there's a noon business meeting listed on the Ag website without a description.
Zoom in: This bill has quite a bit of bipartisan energy and climate policy, including support to biofuels in aviation and a forestry package with wildfire mitigation proposals.
- There's also Kevin McCarthy's long-sought Save Our Sequoias bill, which aims to conserve California's giant trees.
What we're watching: Whether lawmakers will propose amendments in markup to change the IRA funding or add other energy proposals (cough SAF cough).
3. Hearings to watch: electrification, NDAA, Granholm
Illustration: Annelise Capossela/Axios
⚡️ 1. It's electric: Senate ENR is holding a hearing on electricity demand tomorrow morning that'll be must-watch for all you grid nerds out there.
💣 2. That time again: The House NDAA full committee markup is Wednesday, and we'll be watching for any potential fights over the Pentagon's posture on climate change, decarbonization and resilience.
🔫 3. WRDA you doin': Senate EPW on Wednesday is marking up WRDA, its water resources policy bill. (We doubt that'll be much of a squabble.)
🏡 4. Green building grilled: House E&C is holding an oversight hearing Wednesday afternoon on the Biden administration's efforts to reduce the carbon footprint of residential and commercial buildings.
🔎 5. Granholm vs. fireworks: DOE secretary Jennifer Granholm is testifying before the House Oversight and Accountability Committee on Thursday. Jury's out on whether we'll get more talk of eyelash extensions.
✅ Thank you for reading Axios Pro Policy, and thanks to editors Chuck McCutcheon and David Nather and copy editor Brad Bonhall.
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