Senators in Dubai told Axios that there's been real progress in the bipartisan conversation about carbon tariffs, Nick and Jael write.

Why it matters: It's a sign that lawmakers could take baby steps toward a carbon border adjustment mechanism in this Congress.

Driving the news: In an exclusive interview with Axios' Andrew Freedman on the sidelines of COP28, members of the U.S. delegation said carbon tariffs are the next frontier in U.S. climate policy.

• Sen. Lisa Murkowski said the first step is passing the PROVE IT Act, a bipartisan bill that would direct federal agencies to study emissions intensity of industrial goods produced in the U.S. and elsewhere.
• "If you're talking about what could actually pass now … I think that could materialize and then perhaps could be the underpinnings for what to do next," she said.
• Republicans, Murkowski said, are considering ideas on climate policy that would have been "heresy" just a few years ago.
• Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse added that the EU's CBAM could become "a forcing event that leads to more bipartisanship, that creates something very real in terms of economic pressure to knock off the pollution."

Zoom in: The Biden administration is currently negotiating a deal with the EU on "sustainable" steel and aluminum, widely seen in the U.S. as a test case for a bigger climate trade regime.

• Those talks have stalled in recent months. But big-name environmental groups recently wrote Biden urging him to "seize this historic opportunity to use trade tools to incentivize climate action."
• In the Senate, meanwhile, Whitehouse and Sen. Bill Cassidy have both floated competing carbon tariff legislation.

Our thought bubble: PROVE IT is the kind of low-hanging fruit that often moves in a larger legislative package. But we don't expect to see an actual carbon tariff regime move through Congress before the end of next year.

• It's still a tough sell in the House with continued Republican anathema to any kind of domestic carbon tax.
• Reps. John Curtis and Scott Peters plan to introduce a House companion to the PROVE IT Act. They're likely to deviate from the Senate version to make Republicans more comfortable with the idea.
• Even if Congress can't ever enact a CBAM, PROVE IT could give the executive branch the tools it needs to pursue the kind of "carbon club" framework the Biden administration is proposing in steel talks with the EU.

Of note: Lawmakers also spent a lot of time in Dubai this weekend talking about environmental permitting.

• Most of it was posturing they'd do back here: "Climate action advocates should be leading this, not getting in the way of it, but unfortunately we're ass backwards right now," Peters at an event on permitting.
• But there was some substance: At an Atlantic Council event, E&C energy subcommittee chair Jeff Duncan laid out his plans for getting a bipartisan nuclear permitting package: a floor vote and then conferencing with the Senate.
• Duncan said he's looking to hold a hearing on nuclear waste to give lawmakers a chance to weigh in on that controversial topic.

Sen. John Hickenlooper is looking at doing more bipartisan legislating to boost mining and strengthen U.S. battery supply chains, he tells Jael.

Why it matters: The senator's trying to build consensus for ideas to substantively move the needle, including a mining-specific government office.

Driving the news: Hickenlooper explained to Jael last week that he's "aggressively looking at" mining legislation and reaching out to senators on both sides of the aisle.

• He said he's already reached out to Sens. Thom Tillis, Bill Cassidy and Catherine Cortez Masto. His goal is to have some bills ready by the end of next year.
• "Right now we're exploring. We're having lots of discussions with the U.S. Geological Survey, lots of mining companies," he said during a winding talk through the Senate subway tunnels.

Zoom in: Hickenlooper appeared aghast that there is no longer a federal entity overseeing hard rock mineral development in the U.S., after the Bureau of Mines was dismantled under the Clinton administration.

• "You know there's no department of mining?" he asked Jael. "We've just basically decided mines are things we don't like."
• An aide in Hickenlooper's office confirmed that a federal mining agency is "one idea" the senator is considering.
• The aide, who described the senator's push as being in its "very initial" stages, said the senator's also mulling policies surrounding trade and investment in allied nations.

🙏 1. Closing time: Chuck Schumer has filed cloture on the final NDAA, so we'll be watching for that to pass the Senate around midweek and for the House to send it to President Biden by Friday.

• We told you all about what's in it here.
• There are also murmurs that the Senate could stay in longer if they're close to a deal on border policy and a national security supplemental, which could include nuclear fuel supply money.

☢️ 2. Speaking of nuclear fuel: The House will soon vote on Cathy McMorris Rodgers' bill to ban imports of Russian uranium.

• It's likely to pass easily under suspension of the rules.

⛏️ 3. Mining focus: The House Natural Resources oversight subcommittee has a hearing tomorrow on mineral supply chains.

• Plus, the energy and mineral resources subcommittee is examining Rep. Harriet Hageman's "energy poverty" bill and legislation to expedite geothermal development.
• In the Senate, the Energy and Natural Resources public lands, forests, and mining subcommittee will hear from administration officials and industry on legislation responding to a consequential court decision for mines.

💧 4. Sandy I need WRDA: A House Transportation and Infrastructure subcommittee will hold a stakeholder hearing Wednesday for the 2024 Water Resources Development Act.

• Both T&I and Senate Environment and Public Works have formally begun the WRDA process in recent weeks.
• T&I's highways and transit subcommittee will also haul in Biden administration officials Wednesday for an oversight hearing on IIJA infrastructure investments.