🗳️ Iiiiit's Monday — and Election Eve.

• Early voting ended yesterday, so make a plan to vote tomorrow if you haven't already.

🌧️ Today's weather: Scattered showers and thunderstorms then isolated showers and thunderstorms, with a high of 80 and a low of 70.

Today’s newsletter is 1,110 words — a 4-minute read.

Florida Republicans aren't panicking about sluggish turnout for the midterms, but in the words of one GOP elder: "We're white-knuckled."

Why it matters: Florida once looked like a much safer Republican bet for the midterms. Losing any statewide race would stun and embarrass its elite Republican residents, starting with President Trump.

• "I don't necessarily want to be the bearer of bad news, but I don't think the turnout is as strong as we would like to see," Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis fretted last week.
• The biggest GOP concern is U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds' campaign for governor.

Zoom in: The GOP's jitters are rooted in early turnout data.

• Republicans led Democrats in early ballots cast by 3 percentage points as of Sunday morning. That's much lower than in the past two general elections — and it's despite a much-bigger GOP registration advantage.
• Republican turnout is weakest in parts of the conservative Panhandle and rural North Florida, including many of the 17 counties Donalds lost in the Republican primary.

Between the lines: Republican turnout is made up of more habitual voters, while Democrats and independents are banking ballots from people who don't always show up. That could benefit Jolly.

• Democrats already have surpassed their entire 2022 early and mail-in vote totals in 15 counties, compared with four counties for Republicans.
• Nearly every poll shows independent voters favoring Democrats by double digits, so Republicans need a heavy turnout advantage.

The big picture: Donalds could enter Election Day down by as many as 500,000 votes, according to internal Democratic and GOP estimates shared with Axios.

• To overcome that deficit, Donalds could need to win the Election Day vote by a 2:1 ratio. It's a tall order, but Republicans have delivered huge Election Day margins before, notably in 2022.

Yes, but: Even in 2018, when a blue wave flooded the nation, Florida's red wall held. By razor-thin margins, DeSantis won the governor's race and then-Gov. Rick Scott was elected to the Senate.

Zoom out: Republicans face a different political climate than in 2018, when Trump was ascendant in the GOP and the economy was improving.

• Today, Trump's approval with Republicans is lower and gas prices are higher.

Go deeper

🗳️ Your local reporters are working to help you understand the races, candidates and issues shaping your community.

📍 Become a member today and support journalism that keeps voters informed.

Thank you for reading and supporting local election coverage.

As a child of Gainesville, Mac Stone grew up in The Swamp of all swamps, one could say.

• But the award-winning conservation photographer and National Geographic explorer knows now that the cypress and oak canopies that fascinated him as a child "were as adolescent in their lifespan as I was in mine."

Why it matters: That's according to the preface of Stone's new book, "Cypress: The Last Old-Growth Swamps," a love letter to the ancient forests of the Southeastern U.S. that have been filled and logged almost to extinction.

• Stone is set to speak Wednesday evening at the Tampa Bay History Center. (Tickets are $5 and available here.)

Stunning stat: Of the original 40 million acres of old-growth cypress swamps in the Southeast, less than a 10th of a percent remains.

The big picture: The book features 200 pages of stunning photographs Stone has collected over the last decade of four ancient strands of forest in North Carolina, South Carolina and Florida.

• It offers "a window into how the Southeast used to look and function before industrial logging, and all the cool little interactions of wildlife and plants and water that play out in these systems," Stone told Axios.

Zoom in: Among them is Corkscrew Swamp Sanctuary, home to a 700-acre old-growth cypress forest near Naples, about a 2.5-hour drive from Tampa Bay.

• Stone captures in remarkable detail the flora and fauna that keep the forest humming with life: a family of wood storks nesting in the branches, a skulking Florida panther, a giant sphinx moth drinking nectar from a rare blossoming ghost orchid.

State of play: Stone lives in Greenville, South Carolina, these days, but I caught up with him last month during the Audubon Florida Assembly in St. Pete Beach.

• We talked about what he loves about Florida ("You find things here that don't exist anywhere else"), his favorite bird (the swallowtail kite) and his recommendation for Tampa Bay nature enthusiasts (Green Swamp).
• He also told me about his other new book on Southeastern swamps, accompanying an IMAX documentary set to debut next month.

The bottom line: What the books "are attempting to do is to grab people and say, 'Look at this! Like, look. Look at this! Look at what exists here, and you won't find it anywhere else.'"

Share this story

⚖️ Mayor Ken Welch sued Florida Politics publisher Peter Schorsch for defamation over Facebook posts alleging that Welch had an affair with his former deputy mayor, Stephanie Owens. (Tampa Bay Business Journal)

🗳️ United Way Suncoast warns Amendment 3's property tax cuts could drain local funding that partner nonprofits rely on, leaving working families with fewer services. (Fox News 13)

Democrat José Javier Rodríguez is hoping to pull off an upset against Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier next week.

• If he succeeds, his next fight could be with President Trump.

Why it matters: With Republicans controlling Washington, Democratic attorneys general have become some of the most powerful challengers curtailing Trump's policies on elections, tariffs and more.

The big picture: Attorneys general of both parties have become key policymakers, ones that have coordinated to not only challenge Washington, but also to regulate industry and protect consumers.

Case in point: A change in party control can quickly alter a state's legal strategy.

• When Democrat Jay Jones took office as Virginia's attorney general this year, he immediately reviewed which lawsuits his state should join or withdraw from.

By the numbers: Less than two years into Trump's second term, Democratic state attorneys general have brought nearly 150 cases against the administration, according to the Progressive State Leaders Committee.

Keep reading

⭐️ Yacob will join Tampa Bay 28 political anchor Paul LaGrone for tomorrow's election coverage. He hopes you'll tune in!

🤒 Kathryn came down with the flu over the weekend. Let my misery be your motivation to get your flu shot!

This newsletter was edited by Jeff Weiner.