The Florida Democratic Party (FDP) and its chair, Nikki Fried, puffed in speeches and in tweets that the Sunshine State was "in play" this year.

• It wasn't even close.

Why it matters: Florida Democrats fielded candidates in all congressional and legislative races on the ballot — a feat that hadn't happened in decades — yet still ended up with fewer seats than last cycle.

• Party stakeholders told Axios in July that Fried's FDP leadership had resulted mostly in cosmetic changes, and the results of this election do little to suggest otherwise.

Fried did not respond to questions from Axios on Wednesday.

Driving the news: We asked Fried in April for a yardstick to gauge her success as chair — outcomes in Tuesday's results that would provide evidence of the "clear resurgence" she said the FDP had undergone.

• None came to fruition.

Scorecard: She wanted to break the party's super-minority in the Florida House (No); reclaim state Senate District 3 (No); reelect the party's 56 incumbents (No); and pass Amendment 4 (No).

• Instead, Florida Democrats lost hundreds of thousands of active registered voters, lagged Republicans in cash and turnout and watched as once-blue strongholds went red.

The intrigue: Party insiders sounded the alarm months ago.

• Axios interviewed over a dozen people who work for or with the FDP — and almost all said Fried's prioritization of marketing over voter registration was misguided.

The bottom line: The road to relevance for Florida Democrats is a long one.

Share this story

The failure of Tuesday's weed and abortion ballot initiatives despite majority support has once again raised the question:

• What the heck, Florida?

The short answer: In 2006, Florida voters passed a constitutional amendment to raise the threshold to pass constitutional amendments from 50% to 60%.

The long answer: It begins with special-interest groups, lots of money — and pregnant livestock.

• The GOP-controlled Florida Legislature, backed by business interests such as the state Chamber of Commerce and Big Sugar, placed the amendment on the ballot, according to news reports from the time. 
• Those groups went on to pour money into the pro-amendment campaign.

Between the lines: The Legislature and its big business interests often work in lockstep, with industry players even sometimes writing legislation that lawmakers sponsor.

• But the state's voters have repeatedly supported progressive or regulatory causes state officials and business leaders oppose when they appear on the ballot.

Zoom in: On the surface, proponents of the constitutional amendment-threshold measure, known then as Amendment 3, said it would protect the Florida Constitution from superfluous additions — and they had the perfect example.

• Four years before, in 2002, voters approved a ballot measure making it illegal to confine or tether a pregnant pig. It became the poster child for the "up the threshold" crowd. 

It's "outrageous" that such a law became "part of our state's most sacred document," wrote the Florida Chamber's Mark Wilson in a 2006 newspaper op-ed. 

The other side: Opponents argued the "up-the-threshold" measure would erode direct democracy and hamper the electorate's ability to bypass an unresponsive Legislature.

Stunning stat: The measure didn't even meet its own proposed threshold, passing with 58% of the vote. 

Fast forward nearly two decades: The Legislature has continued to erode the constitutional amendment process, the Orlando Sentinel reported last year. 

• From 2018 to 2023, a dozen lawmakers sponsored almost two dozen bills to weaken the ballot initiative process.  
• Four became law. Included in the new regulations were an increase in the cost to verify petition signatures and a narrower timeline to collect them. 

What we're watching: Whether that trend will continue into the lawmaking session that begins in March, and what impact those efforts will have on backers of the abortion and weed amendments staging a comeback.

Go deeper

🩺 The Tampa Bay Abortion Fund saw demand for its help triple since Florida's near-total ban took effect, awarding $710,000 to cover appointment and travel costs for 150 women who sought the procedure. (Tampa Bay Times)

🤭 Ybor City's improv theater, The Commodore, celebrates its first anniversary this weekend with a stacked program, which includes a 12-hour comedy marathon. (Creative Loafing)

✈️ Red Bull Flugtag kicks off on Saturday in Tampa, where 30 teams will compete to see who created the best makeshift aircraft. (WFLA)

The weekend is looking reallllllly good right now.

• Here are some community events to make it even better.

🐟 Tarpon Springs Seafood Festival: Slurp some oysters, dance to live music and shop among local artists at this free festival at the Sponge Docks. 

• Noon-9pm Friday, 10am-9pm Saturday and 10am-5pm Sunday.
• Free parking with a shuttle to the event is available at the Tarpon Springs Splash Park.

🎻 Free Florida Orchestra performances: Touch grass, unwind with some classical music and grab dinner from local food trucks at shows in St. Petersburg and Clearwater.

• Vinoy Park performance: 6:30pm Saturday. The orchestra will accept non-perishable food for donation to Metropolitan Ministries. Information on parking and shuttle service here.
• BayCare Sound at Coachman Park performance: 6:30pm Sunday. Bring items listed here for donation to the Florida Food Force, Salvation Army and St. Vincent de Paul. A parking map is available here.

Keep reading

Unhappy with election results and interested in moving? It's a common sentiment after elections.

Zoom in: In the South, roughly 1 in four people say local or national politics influenced their decision on where to live, according to a recent survey from Realtor.com.

Keep reading