Axios Sneak Peek

January 24, 2024
β°οΈ New Hampshire's moment is here. The next few hours (first polls closed at 7pm ET) could spell the end of the GOP primary β and the start of the longest general election campaign in modern history.
- Smart Brevityβ’ count: 1,081 words ... 4 minutes.
β‘ Situational awareness: President Biden has approved a shakeup of his campaign leadership, dispatching top White House aides Jen O'Malley Dillon and Mike Donilon to take over the operation in Delaware, the Washington Post reports.
1 big thing: DeSantis unshackled
Photo: Brandon Bell/Getty Images
Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis may have endorsed former President Trump, but his rhetoric since dropping out of the GOP presidential race on Sunday suggests their bitter rivalry is far from over.
Why it matters: Most Republicans who have gone through phases of Trump skepticism or opposition β including candidates for president this cycle β ultimately "kiss the ring," as DeSantis himself described it.
- Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C), Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas) and Rep. Nancy Mace (R-S.C.) are among the latest examples.
- But for DeSantis β whose promising campaign was crushed by relentless, often deeply personal attacks from Trump and his allies β the wounds appear too fresh to go quietly.

Driving the news: Just one day after dropping out of the race, DeSantis publicly vowed to veto a Republican proposal to authorize the use of Florida's tax dollars to pay Trump's legal bills.
- Today, with the New Hampshire primary set to determine whether Trump will romp to the nomination, DeSantis appeared on "The Steve Deace Show" to sound the alarm about the man he just endorsed.
- The Florida governor claimed that after months of boosting Trump as a "juggernaut" who will defeat President Biden, the "corporate media" has "flipped" to warning of the former president's vulnerabilities.
What they're saying: "I think that was part of the reason the turnout was low [in Iowa], because people had been told it's a fait accompli," DeSantis said. "Trump's up so much in the polls, he's got the nomination."
- "It's a huge warning sign for Republicans nationally, based on what we saw in Iowa," he continued, citing lifelong conservatives he spoke to who said they couldn't bring themselves to vote for Trump again.
Regarding New Hampshire, DeSantis cast doubt on some experts' predictions that there would be "record turnout."
- "To the extent that turnout's up, it's probably going to be up amongst the more liberal voters who are coming out," DeSantis suggested.
- He went on to hammer Trump for his handling of COVID and lamented that "no one else wanted to talk about" the pandemic during the campaign.
- "This was one of the biggest events in our life. And yet we had one candidate who was the president at the start of it, and when he'd get interviewed, no one would even ask him questions about it!"
What to watch: DeSantis, who is only 45 and will remain governor of Florida until 2026, was asked whether he would run again for president in 2028.
- "We'll see what kind β if we have a country left by 2028," he quipped.
- "I viewed '24 as really a hinge point in American history, and if we don't get it right, I don't know what it's going to look like in the future."
2. π Trumpβs field game flex
Photo: Timothy A. Clary/AFP via Getty Images
Nikki Haley says Trump created chaos as president.
- But in New Hampshire, even Republicans who don't support Trump are praising the organized campaign he has run for the state's primary, Axios' Alex Thompson reports.
Why it matters: Haley did far more events in New Hampshire during the past year than Trump, but the former president's team is betting that its on-the-ground organization will more than make up the difference tonight.
What they're saying: Steve Duprey, a former chair of the New Hampshire Republican Party who endorsed Haley and voted for Joe Biden in 2020, told CNN that Trump's team is "one of the most highly organized presidential primary campaigns I have seen in a couple of decades."
- He said it's a dramatic contrast from Trump's 2016 operation, which was far more oriented around his celebrity.
- Chris Ager, the current state party chair who is neutral in the race, told reporters at a Bloomberg event this weekend that Trump's team "appears to be one of the best run on-the-ground campaigns I've seen, maybe ever."
Zoom in: Trump officials say the organizing principle behind their program is "customer service."
- The campaign frequently rewards top volunteers with VIP tickets to rallies, pictures with Trump, signed Trump hats and other prizes.
- Campaign officials speculate the rewards system comes in part from Trump's hotelier background.
- Since Trump entered the race in November 2022 β months before Haley or most of his other major rivals β his team was able to begin organizing in the spring of 2023.
3. π¨ Haley's home-state hurdles


One big reason Haley has so much riding on New Hampshire:
- Trump is dominating the polls and the endorsement race in her home state of South Carolina, which holds its GOP primary on Feb. 24, Axios' Erin Doherty reports.
Why it matters: The Trump campaign has built a powerful firewall using many politicians who'd otherwise be expected to back Haley β and he's already started to flex the advantage.
Driving the news: Reps. Nancy Mace and Jeff Duncan this week became the latest South Carolina Republicans to fall in line behind Trump.
- The endorsement from Mace β Haley's own congresswoman β was an especially stinging blow.
- Haley campaigned for Mace in her 2022 GOP primary, when she faced a challenger that Trump backed in retaliation for Mace's strong criticism of the former president after Jan. 6.
4. π Phillips' frustration bubbles over
Photo: Gaelen Morse/Bloomberg via Getty Images
Tonight could mark the end of the road for Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), who has staked much of his long-shot primary challenge to Biden on a strong performance in New Hampshire.
Why it matters: If Phillips can't make a dent in a state where the president's name isn't even on the ballot, there's little hope for him in the rest of the primary calendar.
- Phillips has insisted he will stay in the race up until the Democratic convention in August, but the critical voices will only grow louder if Biden dominates in New Hampshire with a grassroots write-in campaign.
- A frustrated Philips pushed back today after reporters questioned whether his candidacy would help Trump, telling them: "I've said this 18,000 times. ... You're not asking the questions that Americans give a s--- about."
π³οΈ Follow our Axios.com live blog for coverage of tonight's results! This newsletter was edited by Kathie Bozanich.
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