The House GOP's worst fears are being confirmed, after they privately sounded the alarm all summer about getting outgunned.

Why it matters: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-N.Y) and his allies are trouncing Republicans in spending in nine of the 10 most expensive House races of the cycle.

• Seven of the most expensive seats are currently held by Democrats, bolstering the GOP's view they are on offense in 2024 despite their tiny majority.
• In the 10 most expensive races, the candidates, parties and outside super PACs are on track to spend $283 million in TV and digital ads, according to data compiled by AdImpact.

Zoom in: The most expensive race is for NY-19, in which Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-N.Y.) is fending off a challenge from Josh Riley, for a combined $35 million.

• It's a rematch of the 2022 contest, in which they unloaded $18.5 million against each other.
• In MI-7, which includes Lansing, the parties have spent nearly $32.8 million — less so far than last cycle's $35.6 million, when it was the most expensive race in the country.
• The priciest race in which Republicans are matching Democratic spending is CA-27, where Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Calif.) and his opponent, George Whitesides, have each spent around $12.6 million.

What they're saying: "Republicans don't have to outspend Democrats in this strong political environment," said Jack Pandol, the communications director of the NRCC.

• "But we must be in the game and on message — relentlessly litigating how we will improve voters' quality of life when we fire these Democratic incumbents."
• "Thanks to our historic fundraising advantage, Democrats are not only investing more on the airwaves, but we're able to invest in a holistic operation to get boots on the ground engaging voters and their communities where they are," said DCCC spokesperson Viet Shelton.

Zoom out: Two years ago, Republicans had a target list of 75 Democrats. This cycle it's around 40.

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— Hans Nichols and Stef Kight

Wisconsin Democrats are suddenly concerned Sen. Tammy Baldwin's re-election bid — rated "lean Democrat" — is too close for comfort.

• Baldwin's lead over GOP nominee Eric Hovde has deteriorated, and Republicans are flooding the state with cash, sources tell us.

Why it matters: We don't mean to sound like a broken record, but Majority Leader Chuck Schumer can't afford to lose anyone.

• Montana's in trouble. Ohio and Michigan are toss-ups.
• But Wisconsin is supposed to be like Nevada and Arizona — a tight but safe-ish race, as long as nothing goes awry.

Between the lines: Multiple Democratic sources told us there are "alarm bells" ringing in the state.

• A national Democratic strategist working on Senate campaigns pointed specifically to a recent poll from Marquette University, which showed Baldwin with a six-point lead. The race is much closer than that, they said.
• Over the next month, Republicans in the state have a nearly $3.5 million spending advantage on the airwaves, according to a source familiar with ad buys in Wisconsin.

The bottom line: Expect to hear lots of quotes like this for the next month in all the "lean Republican/Democrat" races ...

• "We are being massively outspent," Sen. Ted Cruz told Fox News' Sean Hannity on Tuesday, the same day his race was shifted to "lean Republican."
• "We have now had two polls that show that this is a one-point race."

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One of House Speaker Mike Johnson's most vulnerable members admitted today to wearing blackface.

• Photos unearthed today show first-term Rep. Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.) in blackface in 2006, when he was in college.

Lawler, 38, said the outfit was "a genuine" homage to Michael Jackson.

• "The ugly practice of blackface was the furthest thing from my mind," Lawler told the N.Y. Times. "I am a student of history and for anyone who takes offense to the photo, I am sorry."

A year before the photo, Lawler reportedly flew to California (as a high school senior) to attend Jackson's trial on molestation charges.

• Lawler was removed from the courtroom after saying "something derogatory under his breath," a Jackson biographer wrote in a 2009 book, the Daily Beast reports.

The bottom line: Lawler's race is rated a "toss-up" by Cook Political Report.

Rep. Matt Gaetz, who led the historic ouster of Speaker Kevin McCarthy exactly a year ago — thinks the GOP revolution didn't go far enough.

• "Frankly, I wish more had changed," he told us today. "The budgeting irresponsibility continues, and that was the central gripe of the McCarthy removal."
• "We, by removing Kevin, have weakened the speakership."

Why it matters: McCarthy's ouster led to three weeks of House paralysis — and failed speaker bids by Reps. Steve Scalise and Jim Jordan — before exhausted GOP members settled on Johnson as speaker.

• Johnson has since had to survive an ouster attempt of his own.
• He was rescued by Jeffries, who made no such effort to rescue McCarthy.

— Juliegrace Brufke