Hours before traveling to Michigan, a key epicenter of Arab American outrage over the war in Gaza, President Biden signed an unprecedented executive order targeting Israeli settlers who attack Palestinians.

Why it matters: The timing may have been coincidental, but the Biden administration is eager to present deliverables to Arab and Muslim American voters who have threatened to sit out or actively work to defeat the president over his support for Israel.

• Those communities — not to mention the younger generations alienated by Biden's policies toward Gaza — typically vote Democratic by wide margins.
• A major defection would imperil Biden's 2020 coalition: In Michigan, for example, Biden won by 154,000 votes. Census estimates put the state's Arab American population around at least 278,00o.

Driving the news: Biden did not meet with any Muslim or Arab community leaders in his visit to the Detroit area, where he delivered a campaign speech to UAW workers a week after receiving the union's endorsement.

• Pro-Palestinian protests were held Wednesday night in Dearborn, Michigan — home to the country's largest Muslim population per capita — but Biden's event was not disrupted.

Zoom in: The raw anger many of these communities have expressed toward Biden's policies — including his refusal to call for a ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war — cannot be overstated.

• Activists have organized an "Abandon Biden" campaign that plans to endorse a third-party candidate, even at the risk of boosting former President Trump — who is likely to be more hostile to the Palestinians.
• Some Palestinian American community leaders declined an invitation to meet with Secretary of State Antony Blinken today, saying they "cannot imagine" what he could have to say after "nearly four unbearable months."
• Last week, some Arab American elected officials refused to meet with Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez in Michigan — calling it "dehumanizing" to discuss electoral politics while the war is ongoing.

The big picture: Biden has been losing patience with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for weeks now, pressing him to scale down operations in Gaza and stressing that the U.S. is not in it for another year of war.

• As Axios first reported yesterday, the State Department has begun conducting a review of possible policy options for U.S. and international recognition of a Palestinian state after the war.
• Today's executive order represents the most significant step any U.S. administration has ever taken in response to violence by Israeli settlers against Palestinian civilians in the occupied West Bank.

What to watch: Biden does not face a serious challenger in Michigan's Democratic primary on Feb. 27, but the turnout and margin of victory could offer a key test of the hurdles ahead.

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Nikki Haley's stretch of avoiding direct attacks against Trump ended in spectacular fashion in January, with another month of attacks all but guaranteed ahead of South Carolina's Feb. 24 GOP primary.

Why it matters: Haley is the lone survivor of the primary taking on Trump. Facing a massive gap in the polls, the former UN ambassador can no longer afford to tiptoe around Trump's vulnerabilities.

Timeline

Jan. 24: "We got out there, we did our thing and we said what we had to say, and then Donald Trump got out there and just threw a temper tantrum," Haley said in South Carolina after the New Hampshire primary.

Jan. 26: Haley called Trump "totally unhinged" and attacked him for threatening to blacklist anyone who donates to her.

Jan. 28: "The last thing he needs to do is tell them to wait to pass a border deal until the election," Haley said of Trump's efforts to kill the Senate's bipartisan border deal. "We can't wait one more day."

Jan. 30: "Another reason Donald Trump won't debate me … his PAC spent 50 MILLION in campaign dollars on his legal fees," Haley wrote on X.

Jan. 31: Haley said in an interview on "The Breakfast Club" that Trump is "just toxic" and doesn't know "the difference between right or wrong."

Feb. 1: "It is unconscionable to me a candidate would spend $50 million in legal fees. It explains why he is not doing many rallies, he doesn't have the money to do it," Haley told CNN today.

What to watch: Haley's campaign this week launched a series, "Grumpy Old Men," hitting Trump, 77, and President Biden, 81, over their mental competency for office.

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"Tomorrow is Groundhog Day," Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.), the lead GOP negotiator on the Senate border deal, told reporters at the Capitol.

• "It feels like today."

What's happening: Legislative text still has not been released for what would be one of the most restrictive border bills in a century, paired with tens of billions of dollars of foreign military aid. But negotiators are in the "very final stages," Axios' Stef Kight reports.

• Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) told reporters the bill text would be submitted to Senate appropriators this evening, then released as soon as tomorrow as part of a broader funding package for Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan.
• In a sign of plans to move quickly, Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) canceled a planned recess on Monday and said the first vote will come no later than Wednesday.

What to watch: As we previewed yesterday, the bill is already on life support due to opposition from House Republicans, Trump and his allies in the Senate.

• "It needs more time than 'read it over the weekend,'" Sen. Kevin Cramer (R-N.D.) told Axios, warning that a rushed process could kill the deal in the Senate.
• Then there's the House threat: "Why would we do anything right now to help [Biden] with that 33%?" Rep. Troy Nehls (R-Texas) told CNN, referring to the president's low approval rating.

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Rep. Ken Buck (R-Colo.) came out as a "solid no" against impeaching Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas today, potentially leaving Republicans with just one vote to spare on the House floor.

• "It's maladministration. He's terrible," Buck, who's retiring from Congress, said of Mayorkas on MSNBC. "The border is a disaster, but that's not impeachable."
• "This is not a high crime or misdemeanor. It's not an impeachable offense. This is a policy difference," he later told CNN.

Why it matters: A failed vote on impeaching Mayorkas would deliver a massive blow to House Republicans on one of the few issues — the border crisis — that has united the fractious GOP majority.