After one of the warmest Decembers on record and a mild start to January, heavy mountain snow and frosty temperatures appear headed for the Pacific Northwest, according to local weather experts.

Driving the news: A series of weather systems are expected to bring more than 3 feet of snow to the Cascade mountains and passes over the next few days, as well as the possibility of lowland snow to the Seattle area late next week.

Why it matters: The drier, warmer conditions forecast for an El Niño year have created concern about snowpack in the mountains, one of the most crucial climate-related variables in the Pacific Northwest.

• Right now, snowpack is estimated to be at 40% of normal levels, Michael Fagin of Washington Online Weather told Axios. But about 20 inches is expected between now and Sunday evening, he said.
• There's a chance some of the mountain passes will see more than 24 inches of snow between Monday and Wednesday, said Reid Wolcott, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service.

Plus: That's great news for Washington and Oregon skiers who've been encountering ice and bare spots where they'd hoped for snow.

Details: Cooler temperatures and a wet system are expected to arrive Sunday into Monday, bringing overnight temperatures near 32 degrees to Seattle and the possibility of lowland snow to western Whatcom County and the Hood Canal, said Wolcott.

• There's a slim chance that Seattle could see a few flakes on Monday but the chance of accumulating more than an inch is less than 10%, he said.
• Next Friday, however, the Puget Sound region could be hit by chilling winds that might bring Seattle's high temperatures down into the 20s and deliver lowland snow, said Fagin.

Yes, but: Various weather models show a huge range of high temperature possibilities for Seattle next weekend, from the teens to the mid-40s, per the weather service.

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COVID-19 is on the rise in King County and rates of flu and RSV remain above the local "alert threshold," according to Public Health – Seattle & King County (PH–SKC).

Why it matters: Rates of transmission above the alert level show substantial spread of the viruses in the region, signaling health care organizations and hospitals to enact masking requirements, said PH–SKC spokesperson Kate Cole.

Driving the news: The fast-spreading COVID-19 variant known as JN.1 is now the most prevalent in the U.S., especially in the Northeast.

Zoom in: According to data from the state Department of Health released Dec. 27, spokesperson Raechel Sims said the JN.1 variant accounted for only 2.6% of all confirmed molecular COVID-19 positive cases that were sequenced in Washington in November.

What they're saying: "There has always been a little bit of lag time between the East Coast and West Coast," Pavitra Roychoudhury of the University of Washington School of Medicine told Axios.

• In Washington, the percentage of JN.1 among sequenced cases is now rising, "which was the prediction," she said.

The bottom line: As with all other viruses, COVID-19 will continue to mutate and evolve over time, state epidemiologist Scott Lindquist has said, but the main constants of protection will not change: Stay up-to-date on vaccines, be diligent about hand-washing and stay home when sick.

Go deeper

🎹 Billy Joel will perform in Seattle in May, his first performance in the Emerald City in eight years. Tickets for the show at T-Mobile Park go on sale Jan. 12. (KIRO 7)

⁉️ Base jumpers were captured leaping from a new condo building on First Hill in a now-viral video. (KING 5)

👋 Melissa here. I don't know about you, but my Christmas tree is starting to get a little crispy around the edges right about now.

What's happening: Seattle residents can compost their trees for free through Jan. 31.

• Just place your undecorated tree out with your yard waste on your regular collection day and it will be picked up.

Yes, but: To do this, you have to cut your tree into segments no taller than 4 feet. The trunk cannot be wider than 4 inches in diameter.

Of note: If you don't have the tools to cut your tree down to size, you can also haul it to a transfer station and drop it off for free through Jan. 31 (although tree trunks still can't be wider than 4 inches).

Zoom out: If you live in a part of King County outside Seattle, tree recycling policies vary; check this list for more information.

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Here are a few fun ideas to occupy yourself this weekend.

📽️ Catch seven short films from the 2023 Sundance Film Festival, compiled into a 90-minute showing at the Northwest Film Forum (1515 12th Ave.) 7pm today, 4pm and 7pm tomorrow and Sunday.

• $14 general admission; $10 for kids and seniors; $7 for members. More showings available through Jan. 27.

😆 Make time to laugh at the Wet City Comedy Fest, headlined by comedians Patti Harrison, Joel Kim Booster, Pat Regan and Grace Kuhlenschmidt. Runs today through Sunday at The Crocodile.

• Three-day pass for $175, or single-day tickets available Friday and Sunday for $53.50. Saturday single-session passes are already sold out.

🥧 Celebrate the Epiphany with traditional galettes provided by La Parisienne bakery at La Galette des Rois 2024.

• The event, which will also include a French cider tasting, will be held upstairs at the Belltown bakery. General tickets are $20 ($5 for kids). 3–5pm tomorrow.

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