A warm, dry winter has Oregon officials warning of an intense wildfire season fueled by low snowpack and human-caused fire risks.

The big picture: Very dry vegetation could allow fires to spread rapidly across Oregon this summer.

Threat level: "Fuels throughout the state — whether they be forest fuels, shrub vegetation or grasses, even roadside grasses — will be exceptionally dry and receptive to spark," Derek Gasperini, a spokesperson for the Oregon Department of Forestry, told Axios.

• "It's not boding well for fire season."

State of play: Fire season in Jackson and Josephine counties began Friday, with fireworks and debris burning restrictions now in effect.

• Already, the Pine Mountain Fire outside of Bend scorched more than 2,500 acres last week before firefighters contained the blaze.
• Federal wildfire officials predict the eastern half of the state will be at high risk for wildfires by June, with the rest of the state following by August.

What they're doing: The state has already started positioning crews and equipment in the most at-risk areas, Gasperini said.

• They've also upgraded their multimission aircraft to include a new plane with longer range and more capacity, as well as AI mapping that can help spot fires faster.

Experts have gotten good at predicting fire weather conditions, Gasperini said, "but we can't ever anticipate how and when human behavior is going to spark a wildfire."

• Human-caused fires can start easily from a tossed cigarette butt, a trash fire or even parking a car over dry grass.

Between the lines: More than half the land in Oregon, 32 million acres, is overseen by the federal government.

• Oregon's congressional delegation has expressed concern about the feds' wildfire readiness, noting the U.S. Forest Service has lost about 1,400 employees who are certified to respond to fires since last year, per the Oregon Capital Chronicle.
• The Department of the Interior said they expect to have around 5,700 firefighters for the season, roughly in line with the numbers from last year, a spokesperson told the Capital Chronicle.
• Gasperani said federal and state officials meet regularly to plan for fire season and he feels confident the feds will be ready to respond when needed.

The bottom line

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Oregon is adding housing, just not nearly enough of it.

By the numbers: The state's housing supply grew 5% between 2020 and 2025 — about 100,000 units — according to new federal data analyzed by the Oregon Journalism Project.

• Between 2024 and 2025, Oregon added roughly 14,000 new units, falling far short of Gov. Kotek's goal of building 36,000 homes annually when she took office in 2023.
• In Multnomah County, the five-year housing supply growth rate was 3.6%, trailing surrounding Washington (5.7%) and Clackamas (4.8%) counties.

Zoom out: Oregon's slowdown mirrors a broader slump across the West.

• The region now lags behind the rest of the country in apartment construction, according to a new Realtor.com report.
• New housing starts in the first quarter of this year fell nearly 33% compared to pre-pandemic levels, "suggesting that the region's supply pipeline may tighten in the years ahead."

What we're watching: Slower construction today could deepen affordability problems tomorrow.

• Even though the median rent in the Portland metro dropped 1.7% year over year, per Realtor.com, it still costs about $1,600.
• Nearly half of Oregon renters remain rent-burdened, meaning they spend more than 30% of their income on housing.

A shrinking pipeline of new apartments could reverse the modest rent relief renters are seeing today.

💰 Nearly half of respondents to a recent poll said they were opposed to using $75 million in public money earmarked for climate projects to fund renovations of the Moda Center. (The Oregonian)

👀 Gov. Kotek's Prosperity Council is preparing to recommend cutting some taxes — the estate and corporate activities tax, among them — while scrapping others altogether, per a confidential draft of reforms. (Oregon Journalism Project)

• Meanwhile, the coalition of Portland political and business leaders are also asking the council to include high-speed rail as a foundational piece of the regions' economic future. (KATU)

🎣 Skyrocketing diesel prices are already cutting into the profits of Oregon's commercial fishing industry, which is only a few weeks into the season. (OPB)

Americans are spending more time at home, yet many have become strangers to their neighbors — especially young Americans, who are increasingly unlikely to socialize with those living feet away.

Why it matters: Without casual conversations with neighbors, people risk becoming more isolated and more dependent on superficial, algorithm-driven digital communities.

• The loss of neighborly interactions may also be contributing to America's political polarization, Daniel Cox, head report researcher and director of the Survey Center on American Life at AEI, told Axios.

Between the lines: Gen Zers are turning toward online communities that allow users to curate what they read, see and hear.

• "That's not really how you learn to live in a pluralistic, multicultural society," Cox said.
• He added that online friends may share a common interest in a game or a hobby, but they can't water your plants when you're on vacation, help you move furniture, or watch your dog.

Meanwhile, neighborhood ties are maintained through shared schools, sidewalks and emergencies.

• They also allow us to connect with people from other races, or have different religions and political ideologies, which Cox said is "really critical."

🗣️ We want to hear from you: What makes a good neighbor? And how often do you socialize with yours?

• Hit reply or email us at [email protected]
• We may use your response in an upcoming edition of the newsletter.