Scientists expect even more menacing weather disasters in '22, after a year of extreme climate, from the Pacific Northwest heat wave to the Texas cold snap, Axios' Andrew Freedman writes.

• Why it matters: This past year brought the uncomfortable realization that even scientists' worst-case scenarios don't fully capture what the climate system is already capable of.

Threat level: Some scientists who study extreme weather and climate events see a concerning trend — extremes outpacing predictions.

What's happening: Scrolling through a list of 2021's billion-dollar disasters in the U.S. feels like a tour through the Book of Revelation.

• Wildfires in the West were so intense and extensive that the sky turned a milky white and orange ... in New York City.
• Hurricanes defied the odds and intensified right up to landfall.
• Heat waves shattered records and killed hundreds.
• In New York and New Jersey, three dozen died when heavy rains flooded basement apartments.

Reality check: Those disasters galvanized climate activists into pushing for governments to slash emissions of greenhouse gas, but so far without success.

• In the U.S., the most comprehensive and ambitious climate bill to date is stuck unless President Biden and Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) cut a deal.
• Globally, negotiators at the COP26 climate summit in Glasgow made frequent mentions of extreme events. But the Glasgow Climate Pact produced no major breakthroughs.

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Many of the nation's schools are opening today with in-person classes. But more than 2,100 will be closed or open only for remote instruction this week, Axios health care editor Tina Reed writes.

• Major school districts, including D.C. and Baltimore, extended the holiday break by a few days to allow time to test students and teachers.
• Some smaller districts — including ones in Michigan, Ohio and New Jersey — imposed remote learning for this week.
• Mask requirements are back in some districts that had dropped them. Many schools will vastly ramp up testing of students and staff. (AP)

What's happening: Pediatric hospitalizations have hit record levels, attributed mostly to large numbers of kids not being fully vaccinated.

• Early data continues to indicate Omicron may not cause much severe illness. "Given the large number of cases, we have not seen a concomitant increase in the relative percentage of hospitalizations," Dr. Anthony Fauci told ABC's "This Week" yesterday.

What we're watching: The Biden administration is sticking with its push to keep schools open, although its "test-to-stay" plan has faced complications, including delayed tests.

• Education Secretary Miguel Cardona said on CBS' "Face the Nation": "I ... believe very firmly and very passionately, not only as an educator but as a parent, that our students belong in the classroom and that we can do it safely."
• Fauci pointed to vaccination rates among teachers, growing vaccinations among kids and increased testing: "I think all those things put together, it's safe enough to get those kids back to school, balanced against the deleterious effects of keeping them out."

The bottom line: As the U.S. gets back to business and school in '22, Americans face increased testing, changing isolation protocols, and evolving views on mask quality.

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Corporations will have to spend more to navigate demands by consumers and employees "empowered by 'cancel culture' and enabled by social media," Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer and Cliff Kupchan write in a "Top Risks 2022" report to clients, out this morning.

• Why it matters: The year's political and sports calendars give activists "ready-made flashpoints ... the Beijing Winter Olympics (forced labor, human rights), the FIFA World Cup in Qatar (ditto), and the US midterms (voting rights, abortion)."

What's happening: "Compliance is expensive. It means reorienting supply chains. Firms will have to monitor beyond first- or even second-tier suppliers," the Eurasia Group report says.

• "[M]ultinationals caught between the West and China will face a 'two-way' risk. If they speak out against forced labor in China, they face fury from Chinese regulators and consumers. If they don't, they face backlash from regulators and consumers" in the West.

Go deeper: Read the "Top Risks 2022" report.

In Stamford, Conn., drivers line up for free at-home COVID tests.

The S&P 500 recorded 70 closing highs in 2021, according to S&P Global. That's the most for a single year since 77 in 1995, Nathan Bomey writes for Axios Markets.

• Why it matters: The index is a proxy for the broader market.

The S&P finished 2021 up 27% for the year.

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New York's charismatic new mayor, longtime NYPD captain Eric Adams, is promising quick action in the crime-ridden, COVID-weary town, Axios' Jennifer A. Kingson writes from Manhattan.

• Why it matters: New York's urban problems — always a national bellwether — spiraled during the pandemic.

Drama on Day 1: Adams was commuting to work on the subway on his first day when he saw men start to throw punches — and called 911.

• "I have an assault in progress of three males," he said, not immediately identifying himself as mayor, the New York Post wrote.
• At the end of the call, he gave his name: "Adams, Mayor Adams."

What's happening: Adams' predecessor, Bill de Blasio, had become a punchline by the time he left office, blamed for everything from rising crime to the mismanagement of COVID.

• Problems include rampant homelessness, rising murder, small businesses in turmoil, the work-from-home era, and economic inequality that prompted Adams to call New York "a tale of two cities."
• If Adams succeeds, he could go far: He has called himself "the future of the Democratic Party."

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2021 was Chicago's deadliest year for homicides in 25 years — since 1996. Other New Year's weekend headlines from around the country:

• L.A. Times: "L.A. gun deaths most in 15 years."
• Washington Post: "Killings rocketed in Md. suburbs and D.C. in 2021."
• Philadelphia Inquirer: "14 shot in Philly as new year begins."
• Atlanta Journal-Constitution: "With 158th homicide, city passes 2020 total."
• Portland Oregonian: "'The city feels lawless.'"
• Minneapolis Star Tribune: "Mpls. nears homicide record."
• San Jose Mercury News: "Oakland ends a deadly 2021 ... City's homicides hit a 15-year high."
• Cleveland Plain Dealer: "Suburban Cleveland ... Homicides up 29% in 2021 from a year ago."
• New Orleans Times-Picayune: "Murder toll the highest since 2004."

Packers fans celebrate in subfreezing weather during last night's 37-10 rout of the Minnesota Vikings at Lambeau Field in Green Bay.

• The temperature was 11° and dropped to 10° — but felt like 1°.

🧊 It was this season's coldest NFL game, NBC said during "Sunday Night Football."