In the months before driving a rented truck into a crowded Bourbon Street early on New Year's Day, the FBI says, the suspect left behind digital footprints that ultimately led to the attack.

Why it matters: With the right technology, such difficult-to-trace online activity may one day provide enough warning that law enforcement could stop potential attacks before they happen.

Context: Despite initial concerns that Shamsud-Din Jabbar may have had accomplices, the FBI soon began to believe he acted alone.

• That also made him really hard to track, says Ramón Spaaij, an Australia-based researcher with expertise in the sociology of terrorism.

Yes, but: Everyone leaves breadcrumbs, as long as you know what you're looking for and you have the resources to even be looking in the first place, Spaaij tells Axios New Orleans.

• So far, those identifiers — what Spaaij calls "pre-crime behaviors" — are most easily spotted after an attack. Hindsight is 20/20, as they say.
• Those behaviors, Spaaij says, include things like surveilling a potential target area, gathering weapons, researching other attacks, training with weapons and traveling suspiciously.
• The New Orleans attacker did each of those things.

What we're watching: Defense and intelligence communities are investing heavily in predictive language models that can pick up on when people consistently use words indicating they might be planning an attack, Spaaij says.

• In New Orleans, for example, Jabbar posted several videos on Facebook detailing his plans shortly before carrying them out, the FBI says. But it appears no one saw them quickly enough to stop what happened.

Reality check: "Human behavior is really complex and notoriously difficult to predict," Spaaij says.

• "It's a complete illusion to think we'd be able to prevent all terrorist attacks. That's the stuff of movies."

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Pearl Jam, Dave Matthews Band, Luke Combs, Lil Wayne & The Roots and Lenny Kravitz will headline Jazz Fest 2025.

Why it matters: Rock on, my brothers, sisters and friends.

Other headliners include Lenny Kravitz, Kacey Musgraves, Santana, John Fogerty, Burna Boy, HAIM, Cage The Elephant, Laufey, Bryson Tiller, Harry Connick Jr., Patti LaBelle, Trombone Shorty & Orleans Avenue.

Zoom in: Locals Thursday will return for both weekends, according to a press release.

• Dates this year are April 24-27 and May 1-4.
• Weekend passes and VIP tickets are on sale now. Single-day tickets and the full day-by-day schedule known as The Cubes will be available later.

New this year: Louisiana residents can get discounted weekend and single-day tickets.

• Locals Thursday tickets will be $50, but they aren't on sale yet.

See the full lineup

📊 Raleigh, Salt Lake City and Huntsville are among this year's best-performing big cities, according to an annual report ranking U.S. metros across a range of economic factors. (Axios)

• New Orleans/Metairie is — ahem — dead last at 200. Baton Rouge is 152, Shreveport is 194 and Lafayette is 198. (Full rankings)

👀 A controversial move to relocate homeless people from downtown to a Gentilly warehouse-turned-shelter began yesterday. (WWL)

• Mayor Cantrell's administration says the Gov. Jeff Landry-backed plan is "extremely unhelpful" as the city works to permanently house people. (The Times-Picayune 🔒)
• Meanwhile, Jefferson Parish council members passed a new law yesterday banning encampments. The parish doesn't have a public shelter, but says it will spend an additional $500,000 on outreach efforts for homeless people. (The Times-Picayune🔒)

🚂 The start of passenger rail service between New Orleans and Mobile has been delayed. It's now scheduled to begin in June, instead of in time for the Super Bowl. (WWL Radio)

🏭 Mitsubishi Chemical Group canceled plans to build a $1.3 billion plant in Geismar, part of the state's so-called "Cancer Alley." Environmental groups are celebrating. (Verite)

🎶 The annual Martin Luther King Jr. choral concert is at 6pm today at UNO's University Center ballroom.

🖼️ The Ashé Cultural Arts Center hosts the opening reception at noon Saturday for a national juried Martin Luther King Jr. exhibition. (Details)

🙏🏾 Holy Faith Temple Baptist Church hosts the 39th annual Martin Luther King Jr. memorial service at noon Sunday. It will feature speeches, music and a short documentary. (Details)

🎉 The annual Martin Luther King Jr. Day march starts at 10am Monday at A.L. Davis Park.

🫶 Several places are hosting a day of service on Monday, including Sankofa Vegetable Farm, St. Luke's Episcopal Church and City Park.

More events

👋 Chelsea here. I stumbled upon tM Breads & Pastries in the CBD this week while heading to a meeting. On a whim, I picked up a slice of the king cake, and boy oh boy, am I glad I did.

Dig in: It was love at first bite.

• The gently sweet, icing-topped cinnamon-laced brioche was light, but sturdy enough to support a ribbon of cream cheese running through it.

Zoom in: The bakery and coffee shop opened about five years ago from chef/owner Thomas McGovern, who previously worked at the Ritz Carlton.

The bottom line: I'll definitely be back for a whole cake next time.