Markets broadly welcomed Trump's victory.

Why it matters: Upward moves in global stocks might mask more important warning signs in the bond market. There, fears of the coming tariff regime are dominating.

By the numbers: The U.S. stock market is upbeat, with S&P 500 futures suggesting a 2% higher open.

• Bitcoin touched an all-time high of $75,000 — up more than 9% in 24 hours — before pulling back a bit.

Between the lines: At no point before Election Day did the prediction markets give Donald Trump a greater than 43% chance of winning the popular vote. Finally today, they caught up. The odds of a popular vote win are near 100%.

The intrigue: The odds of a Republican sweep — where the GOP controls the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate — are 89%, per Polymarket. The House was still up in the air this morning.

The big picture: As we at Axios will never tire of telling you, The Stock Market Is Not The Economy.

• Rising stock prices don't necessarily portend a healthy economy; they could just as easily be pricing in government policy doing more to favor the interests of capital at the expense of labor.

Where it stands: The most important number in the markets, the 10-year bond yield, jumped to four-month highs.

• That bond yield, which reflects future inflation expectations, is showing worries the broad-based tariffs Trump promises will prove inflationary — or that the Fed will have to raise rates to offset their effects.

Zoom out: The moves in the stock and bond markets look robust but not historic.

• That's because a Trump victory was already largely priced in, partly because politics generally affect markets less than you might think, and partly because no one really has a clue what the second Trump presidency is going to look like.

The bottom line: A renewed shift to the right will have profound consequences for millions of individual Americans — but it doesn't seem to be fazing the markets at all.

Donald Trump's victory may draw some Republican investors back into the market — but they'd have been better off sticking around all along.

Why it matters: Nearly 75 years of data from the S&P 500 make clear: You make a lot more money holding for the long term than if you only invest when one party's in power.

By the numbers: The power of compounding returns can't be underestimated.

• You would've made three times as much betting solely on Democrats versus Republicans since 1950, but do 10 times better than that if you had just held for the entire time.

Zoom out: Research suggests there's not much advantage in the long run for investors with a unified government (one party in total control) versus a divided government.

All political and issue ad spending in the U.S. this cycle will reach over $17 billion, easily a historic spending record, per estimates from GroupM.

The big picture: Both parties flooded the zone with cash — with some TV stations in swing states selling out ad time.

• Democrats outspent their rivals in the general election, except on streaming and satellite TV — and still came up short of their expectations.
• As massive as general election spending was, at roughly $1.8 billion, it was still only about a tenth of what was spent in the full 2024 election cycle.
• Including down-ballot elections for Congress and local races, Democrats roughly doubled their national ad spending advantage against Republicans during the last month or so of the campaign.

Vice President Harris' campaign and outside groups supporting her outspent Republicans by 48% this year on video advertising, which makes up the bulk of campaign ad spend.

Flashback: In 2016, Hillary Clinton spent twice as much as Donald Trump and lost.