Axios Markets

July 24, 2023
π Good morning! Hope your weekend was filled with cheer and summer fun.
- Situational awareness: Shipping giant UPS and the union that represents 340,000 of its workers are headed back to the negotiating table tomorrow, with just one week before their current contract expires. If the parties don't come to terms, the union has said it'll strike, which would deliver a big blow to the economy and represent one of the largest work stoppages in decades.
Today's newsletter is 1,135 words, a 4.5-minute read.
1 big thing: It's not just the Magnificent Seven


Don't look now, but a wider swath of stocks are joining the upswing, Matt writes.
Why it matters: It bodes well for growth that an increasing number of stocks β including small caps and so-called cyclical companies closely tied to immediate ups and downs of the economy β are showing signs of life.
The latest: The benchmark S&P 500 ended last week up about 0.7%, led by health care, energy and financial shares.
- Among the Magnificent Seven β Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia and Tesla β only Apple outperformed the index, as ugly earnings from Tesla and perhaps an ever-so-slight easing of AI hype weighed on these massive companies.
Be smart: The colossal market caps of the Magnificent Seven mean their price swings heavily influence the market-cap-weighted S&P 500.
Yes, but: The non-magnificent, non-mega-sized segments of the stock market did quite well last week, continuing a recent trend of outperforming the giant tech stocks that first led the year's gains.
- The Russell 2000 index of small-cap stocks rose about 1.6% last week.
- The S&P 500 equal weight index, which strips out the influence of giant companies, was also up roughly 1.6% β over twice the gain of the market cap-weighted index.
- The tech-heavy Nasdaq composite index was down 0.6% for the week.
π£ What they're saying: The market rally is broadening.
- "The S&P 500 has broadened out since May and we expect this to continue," BofA market analysts wrote in a note on Friday.
- "Over the past few weeks, the equity rally has broadened considerably. Investors are now looking for value outside the 'Magnificent Seven,'β market analysts with Interactive Brokers wrote last week.
- "Broadening participation is holding up as 70% of S&P 500 stocks are trading above their 200-day moving average," NYSE analysts wrote on Friday.
The bottom line: This is a good sign both for the economy and for the durability of what increasingly seems like a real bull market.
3. Treasury deluge


Remember when the U.S. government nearly ran out of cash during the debt ceiling standoff? Its bank account sank below $50 billion β for perspective, the Harvard endowment has more money than that.
- Now, one deluge of T-bill issuance later, that account β known as the Treasury General Account β is back up over $500 billion, Axios' Kate Marino writes.
Why it matters: The need to execute an unprecedented amount of Treasury issuance in just a few months was a by-product of the debt ceiling fight, which effectively froze Treasury issuance earlier this year. It threatened to put the governmentβs ability to fund itself at risk, even after Congress finally raised the ceiling.
Flashback: Market participants rang alarm bells. They warned that the glut from playing catch-up could overwhelm the system, suck money from struggling banks, or generally gum up the markets in unforeseen ways.
How it's going: So far, so good.
- βIn a difficult market, these things can be difficult to do. But we've been in a reasonably stable market,β says Robert Tipp, chief investment strategist at PGIM Fixed Income.
State of play: Since the debt ceiling deal passed, the U.S. Treasury has raised about $600 billion by selling short-term bills.
- It will likely raise another $400 billion by the end of September, followed by another $300 billion or so during Q4, TD Securities analysts estimate.
In the weeds: Money market mutual funds purchased 66% of June's bill issuance, partly by shifting holdings out of an overnight Fed facility, according to a recent BofA Global Research note. (That Fed facility is now at about $1.7 trillion, down from about $2.3 trillion at the end of May.)
- Market participants had hoped that would happen β rather than have more money drain from a banking system damaged by deposit outflows earlier in the year.
- "The risk that the issuance pulls significant cash out of banks in the near-term has declined,β says Gennadiy Goldberg, TD Securities' head of U.S. rates strategy.
Meanwhile: Primary dealers β the investment banks that buy Treasuries from the government and then sell them to investors β also appear to have absorbed some of the bills.
- So-called dealer inventories of bills have swelled to historically high levels in recent weeks, according to New York Fed data.
What to watch: Eventually dealers will want to want to unload some of this to the market, which could put some upward pressure on yields, Goldberg notes.
4. Wanted: Grid upgrade
Illustration: AΓ―da Amer/Axios
With the U.S. in the midst of a relentless heat wave, all eyes are on the electric grid, which experts say is in desperate need of modernization, Emily writes.
Why it matters: Access to air conditioning is not only an economic imperative, but increasingly a life or death issue.
Case in point: Extreme heat delivers a triple whammy to the electric grid, Joshua Rhodes, a research scientist at the University of Texas at Austin, told Emily last week in a podcast interview.
- The hotter it is outside, the less efficient power plants are and the less power they can actually make.
- Same with the power lines. The hotter they get, the less electricity you're able to move through them.
- Meanwhile, the heat drives up demand for electricity β right when the grid is making less power, and is less efficient about moving it around.
The basics: The grid β which Rhodes describes as "the biggest machine we've ever built" β consists of the power plants that make electricity and all the wires and poles that move and distribute that power to our homes.
What's needed: A lot of money. According to an estimate Rhodes did a few years ago, replacing the grid and adapting it to modern-day needs would cost something like $5 trillion. That would include:
- Replacing the lines, and many of the power plants, and bringing everything up to modern standards.
- Taking into account "the new reality of climate change," by weatherizing power systems in areas that experience extreme heat, cold, wildfires or hurricanes that their current system can't handle.
- Adapting to increasing electricity use, as things like electric vehicles or electric heat pumps become more common.
- And, moving toward more sustainable sources of power, like wind and solar β and building more storage for that power so it can be used on days that aren't windy or sunny.
What to watch: There are a host of renewable power projects in the works in the U.S., and more "demand response programs," which try to limit electric demand during surge times to keep the grid stable.
- "There are going to be challenges ... but I think we're moving in the right direction."
π§ Go deeper: America's $5 Trillion Grid Problem (Slate)
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Today's Axios Markets was edited by Kate Marino and copy edited by Mickey Meece.
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